What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 05 Sep 2020 → 31 Oct 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 07 Dec 2013 → 10 May 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 03 May 2013 → 10 Aug 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 07 Aug 2024 → 23 Oct 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 26 Aug 2018 → 24 Nov 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 08 Aug 2026 → 17 Oct 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 03 Apr 2015 → 23 May 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 28 Jul 2012 → 29 Sep 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 15 Mar 2025 → 03 May 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 06 May 2023 → 01 Jul 2023 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J1 League | 466 | 110 | 23.6% | 0 | 16 |
| Emperor's Cup | 66 | 13 | 19.7% | 4 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 10 |
| 2025 | 42 | 10 | 23.8% | 9 |
| 2024 | 39 | 5 | 12.8% | 11 |
| 2023 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 9 |
| 2022 | 38 | 14 | 36.8% | 8 |
| 2021 | 42 | 9 | 21.4% | 9 |
| 2020 | 34 | 6 | 17.7% | 14 |
| 2019 | 35 | 10 | 28.6% | 6 |
| 2018 | 36 | 7 | 19.4% | 11 |
| 2017 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2016 | 35 | 9 | 25.7% | 8 |
| 2015 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 10 |
| 2014 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 13 |
| 2013 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 12 |
| 2012 | 38 | 8 | 21.1% | 10 |
| 2011 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2010 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 2009 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 2008 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2007 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2006 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2005 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2004 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2003 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2002 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2000 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1999 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1998 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1996 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1993 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
Over 389 matches (Mar 2015 – Oct 2026), Nagoya Grampus drew 90 where the draw model expected 102.5 from those particular fixtures — about 12 fewer, or 1.4 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 95.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.