What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 02 Sep 2018 → 04 Feb 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 13 | 02 Aug 2025 → 09 Nov 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 13 | 13 Dec 2015 → 06 Mar 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 12 | 10 May 2003 → 17 Oct 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 28 Sep 2024 → 21 Dec 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 06 Mar 2022 → 14 May 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 29 Oct 2016 → 20 Jan 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 14 Apr 2024 → 25 Aug 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 04 Feb 2018 → 09 Apr 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 03 Jan 2026 → 21 Feb 2026 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 516 | 144 | 27.9% | 3 | 17 |
| Taça de Portugal | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 1 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32 | 6 | 18.8% | 8 |
| 2025 | 39 | 11 | 28.2% | 13 |
| 2024 | 37 | 5 | 13.5% | 11 |
| 2023 | 16 | 5 | 31.3% | 5 |
| 2022 | 21 | 2 | 9.5% | 10 |
| 2021 | 41 | 16 | 39.0% | 4 |
| 2020 | 31 | 12 | 38.7% | 4 |
| 2019 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 7 |
| 2018 | 33 | 4 | 12.1% | 11 |
| 2017 | 34 | 12 | 35.3% | 4 |
| 2016 | 35 | 6 | 17.1% | 11 |
| 2015 | 34 | 10 | 29.4% | 4 |
| 2014 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 5 |
| 2013 | 18 | 4 | 22.2% | 7 |
| 2012 | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 3 |
| 2005 | 19 | 7 | 36.8% | 4 |
| 2004 | 34 | 12 | 35.3% | 7 |
| 2003 | 34 | 12 | 35.3% | 12 |
| 2002 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 8 |
Over 387 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Moreirense drew 97 where the draw model expected 99.8 from those particular fixtures — about 3 fewer, or 0.3 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 97.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.