What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 08 May 2022 → 30 Oct 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 16 | 21 Dec 2024 → 19 Apr 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 15 | 17 Oct 2021 → 23 Jan 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 15 | 08 Dec 2012 → 10 Mar 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 14 | 22 Nov 2009 → 27 Feb 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 14 | 22 Jan 2003 → 10 May 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 12 | 11 Mar 2017 → 12 Aug 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 11 | 23 Aug 2024 → 23 Nov 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 11 | 08 Apr 2016 → 21 Aug 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 11 | 06 Mar 2009 → 15 May 2009 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ligue 1 | 954 | 267 | 28.0% | 3 | 18 |
| Ligue 2 | 273 | 79 | 28.9% | 4 | 11 |
| Coupe de France | 44 | 7 | 15.9% | 3 | 4 |
| UEFA Europa League | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 2 | 3 |
| UEFA Champions League | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 0 | 3 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 1 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32 | 8 | 25.0% | 9 |
| 2025 | 37 | 5 | 13.5% | 15 |
| 2024 | 36 | 8 | 22.2% | 11 |
| 2023 | 40 | 10 | 25.0% | 9 |
| 2022 | 38 | 6 | 15.8% | 17 |
| 2021 | 46 | 14 | 30.4% | 11 |
| 2020 | 29 | 5 | 17.2% | 8 |
| 2019 | 41 | 14 | 34.2% | 6 |
| 2018 | 41 | 19 | 46.3% | 6 |
| 2017 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 12 |
| 2016 | 43 | 10 | 23.3% | 11 |
| 2015 | 39 | 7 | 18.0% | 7 |
| 2014 | 41 | 12 | 29.3% | 9 |
| 2013 | 40 | 13 | 32.5% | 11 |
| 2012 | 48 | 10 | 20.8% | 9 |
| 2011 | 39 | 9 | 23.1% | 10 |
| 2010 | 41 | 12 | 29.3% | 9 |
| 2009 | 39 | 7 | 18.0% | 11 |
| 2008 | 40 | 11 | 27.5% | 4 |
| 2007 | 40 | 16 | 40.0% | 6 |
| 2006 | 39 | 8 | 20.5% | 8 |
| 2005 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 6 |
| 2004 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 10 |
| 2003 | 36 | 6 | 16.7% | 14 |
| 2002 | 36 | 13 | 36.1% | 6 |
| 2001 | 31 | 12 | 38.7% | 7 |
| 2000 | 38 | 14 | 36.8% | 6 |
| 1999 | 38 | 13 | 34.2% | 6 |
| 1998 | 33 | 5 | 15.2% | 8 |
| 1997 | 36 | 14 | 38.9% | 6 |
| 1996 | 42 | 13 | 31.0% | 7 |
| 1995 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 6 |
| 1994 | 37 | 14 | 37.8% | 8 |
| 1993 | 22 | 8 | 36.4% | 4 |
| 1991 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1990 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1988 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
Over 461 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Montpellier HSC drew 116 where the draw model expected 124.4 from those particular fixtures — about 8 fewer, or 0.9 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 127.0 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.