What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 19 Sep 2021 → 30 Jan 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 26 May 2002 → 01 Dec 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 23 Apr 2022 → 15 Oct 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 07 Nov 2015 → 16 Jan 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 10 | 18 Apr 2026 → 06 Sep 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 08 Oct 2006 → 09 Dec 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 14 May 2011 → 10 Sep 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 08 Mar 2025 → 04 May 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 05 Dec 2020 → 30 Jan 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 13 Feb 2016 → 26 Mar 2016 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie B | 704 | 237 | 33.7% | 0 | 11 |
| Serie C | 92 | 19 | 20.7% | 1 | 19 |
| Serie A | 68 | 23 | 33.8% | 5 | 12 |
| Coppa Italia | 30 | 6 | 20.0% | 1 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33 | 7 | 21.2% | 10 |
| 2025 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 8 |
| 2024 | 40 | 21 | 52.5% | 3 |
| 2023 | 39 | 12 | 30.8% | 6 |
| 2022 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 12 |
| 2021 | 42 | 7 | 16.7% | 17 |
| 2020 | 26 | 5 | 19.2% | 6 |
| 2019 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 2016 | 23 | 6 | 26.1% | 8 |
| 2015 | 44 | 11 | 25.0% | 10 |
| 2014 | 45 | 20 | 44.4% | 5 |
| 2013 | 42 | 12 | 28.6% | 6 |
| 2012 | 46 | 15 | 32.6% | 6 |
| 2011 | 45 | 18 | 40.0% | 9 |
| 2010 | 45 | 17 | 37.8% | 5 |
| 2009 | 43 | 11 | 25.6% | 8 |
| 2008 | 44 | 16 | 36.4% | 7 |
| 2007 | 44 | 15 | 34.1% | 5 |
| 2006 | 42 | 10 | 23.8% | 10 |
| 2005 | 45 | 22 | 48.9% | 3 |
| 2004 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 8 |
| 2003 | 33 | 14 | 42.4% | 5 |
| 2002 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 14 |
| 2001 | 18 | 6 | 33.3% | 6 |
Over 332 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Modena drew 91 where the draw model expected 103.1 from those particular fixtures — about 12 fewer, or 1.4 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 103.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.