What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24 | 19 Mar 1995 → 01 Oct 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 19 | 04 Mar 2008 → 20 Sep 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 18 | 21 May 2017 → 20 Oct 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 17 | 25 Apr 2015 → 04 Oct 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 17 | 23 Oct 2005 → 22 Jan 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 14 | 16 Jan 2005 → 06 Apr 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 14 | 28 Apr 1996 → 30 Oct 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 13 | 10 Sep 2022 → 05 Nov 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 13 | 01 Oct 2002 → 26 Nov 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 13 | 16 Sep 1992 → 05 Sep 1993 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 1220 | 325 | 26.6% | 4 | 21 |
| UEFA Champions League | 280 | 73 | 26.1% | 0 | 14 |
| UEFA Europa League | 107 | 22 | 20.6% | 3 | 7 |
| Coppa Italia | 64 | 19 | 29.7% | 5 | 5 |
| Club Friendlies | 45 | 11 | 24.4% | 2 | 7 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 30 | 11 | 36.7% | 2 | 5 |
| UEFA Super Cup | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 1 | 2 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 0 | 4 |
| Intercontinental Cup (Toyota Cup) | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 0 | 3 |
| Supercoppa Italiana | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 1 | 2 |
| FIFA Club World Cup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 8 |
| 2025 | 57 | 11 | 19.3% | 12 |
| 2024 | 57 | 14 | 24.6% | 11 |
| 2023 | 60 | 16 | 26.7% | 9 |
| 2022 | 51 | 11 | 21.6% | 13 |
| 2021 | 61 | 14 | 23.0% | 9 |
| 2020 | 49 | 14 | 28.6% | 11 |
| 2019 | 42 | 10 | 23.8% | 7 |
| 2018 | 51 | 16 | 31.4% | 7 |
| 2017 | 58 | 13 | 22.4% | 18 |
| 2016 | 43 | 13 | 30.2% | 6 |
| 2015 | 46 | 11 | 23.9% | 17 |
| 2014 | 41 | 9 | 22.0% | 12 |
| 2013 | 46 | 16 | 34.8% | 5 |
| 2012 | 55 | 11 | 20.0% | 8 |
| 2011 | 50 | 16 | 32.0% | 8 |
| 2010 | 49 | 11 | 22.5% | 8 |
| 2009 | 44 | 13 | 29.5% | 5 |
| 2008 | 53 | 13 | 24.5% | 19 |
| 2007 | 55 | 16 | 29.1% | 8 |
| 2006 | 55 | 14 | 25.5% | 9 |
| 2005 | 52 | 9 | 17.3% | 14 |
| 2004 | 47 | 11 | 23.4% | 8 |
| 2003 | 49 | 13 | 26.5% | 5 |
| 2002 | 45 | 10 | 22.2% | 13 |
| 2001 | 52 | 19 | 36.5% | 6 |
| 2000 | 42 | 14 | 33.3% | 8 |
| 1999 | 40 | 15 | 37.5% | 7 |
| 1998 | 35 | 10 | 28.6% | 7 |
| 1997 | 33 | 12 | 36.4% | 6 |
| 1996 | 39 | 8 | 20.5% | 14 |
| 1995 | 51 | 12 | 23.5% | 24 |
| 1994 | 46 | 16 | 34.8% | 10 |
| 1993 | 28 | 8 | 28.6% | 7 |
| 1992 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1991 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1990 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1989 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 6 |
| 1988 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1987 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1985 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1979 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1978 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1977 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1976 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1975 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1974 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1973 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 1972 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1971 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 1969 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 10 |
| 1968 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 1967 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 1 |
| 1965 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 1964 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1963 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 5 |
| 1962 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1959 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1958 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1957 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1956 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1955 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
Over 614 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), AC Milan drew 153 where the draw model expected 146.7 from those particular fixtures — about 6 more, or 0.6 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 157.6 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.