What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20 | 09 Nov 2012 → 16 Feb 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 19 | 21 Oct 2017 → 27 Jan 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 18 | 08 Nov 2022 → 11 Mar 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 18 | 29 Mar 2014 → 20 Sep 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 16 | 21 Nov 2020 → 27 Jan 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 15 | 11 Nov 2023 → 13 Jan 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 14 | 21 Feb 2015 → 25 Apr 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 14 | 19 Apr 2008 → 18 Oct 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 13 | 07 Mar 2020 → 15 Sep 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 13 | 21 Apr 2012 → 29 Sep 2012 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Championship | 887 | 222 | 25.0% | 2 | 17 |
| Premier League | 532 | 158 | 29.7% | 3 | 15 |
| FA Cup | 345 | 95 | 27.5% | 1 | 5 |
| League Cup | 204 | 44 | 21.6% | 3 | 8 |
| UEFA Europa League | 25 | 4 | 16.0% | 10 | 10 |
| Club Friendlies | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 0 | 3 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42 | 13 | 31.0% | 9 |
| 2025 | 51 | 12 | 23.5% | 12 |
| 2024 | 50 | 13 | 26.0% | 8 |
| 2023 | 52 | 6 | 11.5% | 12 |
| 2022 | 51 | 12 | 23.5% | 6 |
| 2021 | 52 | 10 | 19.2% | 11 |
| 2020 | 46 | 12 | 26.1% | 13 |
| 2019 | 50 | 15 | 30.0% | 12 |
| 2018 | 53 | 16 | 30.2% | 5 |
| 2017 | 51 | 12 | 23.5% | 14 |
| 2016 | 47 | 13 | 27.7% | 12 |
| 2015 | 54 | 9 | 16.7% | 14 |
| 2014 | 51 | 16 | 31.4% | 18 |
| 2013 | 48 | 11 | 22.9% | 9 |
| 2012 | 55 | 11 | 20.0% | 13 |
| 2011 | 51 | 17 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2010 | 48 | 12 | 25.0% | 8 |
| 2009 | 48 | 13 | 27.1% | 6 |
| 2008 | 45 | 14 | 31.1% | 14 |
| 2007 | 47 | 15 | 31.9% | 6 |
| 2006 | 54 | 12 | 22.2% | 11 |
| 2005 | 52 | 16 | 30.8% | 8 |
| 2004 | 57 | 10 | 17.5% | 12 |
| 2003 | 40 | 14 | 35.0% | 7 |
| 2002 | 48 | 11 | 22.9% | 9 |
| 2001 | 41 | 15 | 36.6% | 8 |
| 2000 | 43 | 14 | 32.6% | 9 |
| 1999 | 44 | 11 | 25.0% | 9 |
| 1998 | 51 | 15 | 29.4% | 8 |
| 1997 | 59 | 14 | 23.7% | 10 |
| 1996 | 44 | 11 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 1995 | 50 | 16 | 32.0% | 7 |
| 1994 | 54 | 13 | 24.1% | 12 |
| 1993 | 29 | 10 | 34.5% | 6 |
| 1992 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1991 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1990 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 1989 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1988 | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 1 |
| 1987 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1986 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1985 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1984 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1983 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1982 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1981 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1980 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1979 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1978 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1977 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1976 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1975 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1974 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1973 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 |
| 1972 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1971 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1970 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1969 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1968 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1967 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1966 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1965 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1964 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1963 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1962 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1961 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1960 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1959 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1958 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1957 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1956 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1955 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1954 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1953 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1952 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1951 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1950 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1948 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1947 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1946 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 1939 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1938 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1937 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1936 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1935 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1934 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1933 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1932 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1931 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1930 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1929 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1928 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1927 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1926 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1925 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1924 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1923 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1922 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1921 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1920 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1915 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1914 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1913 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1912 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1911 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1910 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1909 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1908 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1907 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1906 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1905 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1904 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1902 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1901 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1895 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1894 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1893 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1892 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1888 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1887 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1886 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 |
| 1885 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1884 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1883 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 599 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Middlesbrough drew 143 where the draw model expected 164.8 from those particular fixtures — about 22 fewer, or 2.0 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 4 times running. A flat league average would have expected 160.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.