What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 01 Apr 2006 → 10 Sep 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 10 | 18 Sep 2022 → 13 Nov 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 10 | 04 Dec 2004 → 06 Feb 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 27 Nov 2022 → 22 Jan 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 8 | 10 Nov 2024 → 20 Jan 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 30 Oct 2007 → 22 Dec 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 7 | 01 Nov 2023 → 09 Dec 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 15 Feb 2022 → 16 Mar 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 12 Sep 2021 → 17 Oct 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 19 Jan 2008 → 23 Feb 2008 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie B | 164 | 56 | 34.2% | 3 | 8 |
| Serie C | 146 | 40 | 27.4% | 6 | 10 |
| Serie A | 114 | 36 | 31.6% | 1 | 10 |
| Coppa Italia | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 2 | 5 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2024 | 37 | 12 | 32.4% | 6 |
| 2023 | 37 | 13 | 35.1% | 7 |
| 2022 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 10 |
| 2021 | 19 | 4 | 21.1% | 7 |
| 2016 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2014 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2008 | 23 | 6 | 26.1% | 7 |
| 2007 | 40 | 10 | 25.0% | 8 |
| 2006 | 44 | 12 | 27.3% | 11 |
| 2005 | 40 | 13 | 32.5% | 8 |
| 2004 | 41 | 14 | 34.2% | 6 |
| 2003 | 42 | 20 | 47.6% | 6 |
| 2002 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 6 |
| 2001 | 18 | 7 | 38.9% | 5 |
Over 148 matches (Jul 2016 – Apr 2025), ACR Messina drew 40 where the draw model expected 44.6 from those particular fixtures — about 5 fewer, or 0.8 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 44.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.