Malawi
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 30 Sep 2026.
Over 110 matches (Mar 2015 – Jun 2026), Malawi drew 35 where the draw model expected 28.9 from those particular fixtures — about 6 more, or 1.3 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 27.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 | 31 May 2008 → 05 Sep 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 24 Oct 1978 → 06 Jul 1979 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 16 Jun 2012 → 23 Mar 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 14 Jul 2021 → 14 Jan 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 10 Jul 1984 → 12 Dec 1984 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 26 Oct 1983 → 12 Feb 1984 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 7 | 20 Jul 2014 → 15 Nov 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 27 May 2007 → 26 Mar 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 04 Jun 2005 → 08 Oct 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 19 Nov 1992 → 23 Apr 1993 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 291 | 90 | 30.9% | 0 | 6 |
| African Cup of Nations qualification | 107 | 28 | 26.2% | 1 | 9 |
| CECAFA Cup | 85 | 21 | 24.7% | 4 | 6 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 76 | 18 | 23.7% | 2 | 6 |
| COSAFA Cup | 57 | 21 | 36.8% | 0 | 4 |
| African Cup of Nations | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 1 | 3 |
| All-African Games | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 1 | 5 |
| COSAFA Cup qualification | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 | 3 |
| Mukuru 4 Nations | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2025 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 2024 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 2023 | 13 | 6 | 46.2% | 3 |
| 2022 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 2021 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% | 8 |
| 2020 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2019 | 12 | 6 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2018 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 3 |
| 2017 | 7 | 4 | 57.1% | 2 |
| 2016 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 2015 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 6 |
| 2014 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 7 |
| 2013 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 4 |
| 2012 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 10 |
| 2011 | 12 | 7 | 58.3% | 2 |
| 2010 | 13 | 5 | 38.5% | 5 |
| 2009 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 8 |
| 2008 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 10 |
| 2007 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 2006 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 6 |
| 2005 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 7 |
| 2004 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 2 |
| 2003 | 14 | 6 | 42.9% | 3 |
| 2002 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 5 |
| 2001 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 4 |
| 2000 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 3 |
| 1999 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1998 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 |
| 1997 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 3 |
| 1996 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 1995 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1994 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1993 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1992 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 4 |
| 1991 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1990 | 12 | 6 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1989 | 21 | 9 | 42.9% | 7 |
| 1988 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 4 |
| 1987 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1986 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1985 | 16 | 8 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1984 | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 9 |
| 1983 | 15 | 5 | 33.3% | 7 |
| 1982 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 1981 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 5 |
| 1980 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 3 |
| 1979 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% | 6 |
| 1978 | 19 | 2 | 10.5% | 9 |
| 1977 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 6 |
| 1976 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 5 |
| 1975 | 17 | 5 | 29.4% | 5 |
| 1974 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 1973 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1972 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1971 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1970 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1969 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 1968 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1967 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1966 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1964 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1963 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1962 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1957 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
