What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 11 Dec 2016 → 18 Mar 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 7 | 31 Mar 2017 → 06 May 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 7 | 30 Jan 2016 → 06 Mar 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 7 | 18 Oct 2014 → 05 Dec 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 7 | 02 Dec 2008 → 14 Mar 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 6 | 13 Aug 2016 → 24 Sep 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 6 | 27 Mar 2012 → 28 Apr 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 6 | 04 Feb 2012 → 16 Mar 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 6 | 27 Aug 2011 → 24 Sep 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 6 | 27 Mar 2009 → 09 May 2009 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3. Liga | 114 | 31 | 27.2% | 1 | 11 |
| Regionalliga West | 70 | 15 | 21.4% | 2 | 7 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 19 | 2 | 10.5% | 9 |
| 2016 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 2015 | 37 | 14 | 37.8% | 5 |
| 2014 | 22 | 6 | 27.3% | 7 |
| 2012 | 18 | 3 | 16.7% | 6 |
| 2011 | 18 | 5 | 27.8% | 6 |
| 2009 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2008 | 18 | 3 | 16.7% | 6 |
Over 184 matches (Aug 2008 – May 2017), Mainz 05 II drew 46 where the draw model expected 50.8 from those particular fixtures — about 5 fewer, or 0.8 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 48.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.