What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27 | 06 Sep 2003 → 02 Sep 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 15 | 24 Nov 1979 → 01 May 1981 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 09 Feb 2011 → 07 Sep 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 14 | 12 Oct 1983 → 27 Mar 1985 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 13 | 14 Jun 2015 → 07 Oct 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 13 | 07 Jun 2000 → 06 Oct 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 09 Oct 2021 → 11 Jun 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 07 Sep 1994 → 06 Sep 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 16 Oct 2023 → 08 Sep 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 10 Mar 1999 → 23 Feb 2000 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 164 | 33 | 20.1% | 2 | 8 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 148 | 10 | 6.8% | 6 | 12 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 128 | 13 | 10.2% | 4 | 9 |
| UEFA Nations League | 28 | 7 | 25.0% | 4 | 5 |
| Olympic Games | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 2025 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 6 |
| 2024 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2023 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 6 |
| 2022 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 5 |
| 2021 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 7 |
| 2020 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 2019 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 7 |
| 2018 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 2017 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 2016 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 2015 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 7 |
| 2014 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 3 |
| 2013 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 6 |
| 2012 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 2011 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2010 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 2009 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2008 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2007 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 5 |
| 2006 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 2005 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 2004 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2003 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 4 |
| 2002 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 4 |
| 2001 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 9 |
| 2000 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1999 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1998 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1997 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1996 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1995 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 1994 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1993 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1992 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1991 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1990 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1989 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1988 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1987 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 1986 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1985 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1984 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 1983 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1982 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1981 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1980 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 11 |
| 1979 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1978 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1977 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1976 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1975 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1974 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1973 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1972 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1971 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1970 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1969 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1968 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1967 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1966 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1965 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1964 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1963 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 1 |
| 1962 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1961 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1960 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1959 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1957 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1956 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1954 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1953 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1952 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1951 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1950 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1949 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1947 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1946 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1945 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1940 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1939 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1938 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1937 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1936 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1935 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1934 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1928 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1927 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1925 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1924 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1923 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1922 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1920 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1914 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1913 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1911 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 114 matches (Mar 2015 – Oct 2026), Luxembourg drew 20 where the draw model expected 22.5 from those particular fixtures — about 3 fewer, or 0.6 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 26.3 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.