What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 4 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 19 Oct 2022 → 29 Nov 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 8 | 18 Apr 2021 → 25 Sep 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 7 | 17 Dec 2023 → 04 Feb 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 7 | 14 Sep 1997 → 26 Oct 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 6 | 03 Apr 2022 → 11 Sep 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 6 | 22 Nov 2020 → 13 Dec 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 6 | 04 Oct 2020 → 25 Oct 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 5 | 30 Mar 2025 → 27 Apr 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 5 | 07 Mar 2021 → 28 Mar 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 5 | 14 Apr 2018 → 23 Sep 2018 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie C | 262 | 101 | 38.6% | 5 | 8 |
| Serie B | 76 | 24 | 31.6% | 1 | 7 |
| Coppa Italia | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 18 | 5 | 27.8% | 5 |
| 2024 | 39 | 16 | 41.0% | 5 |
| 2023 | 37 | 16 | 43.2% | 3 |
| 2022 | 39 | 12 | 30.8% | 8 |
| 2021 | 40 | 15 | 37.5% | 8 |
| 2020 | 17 | 5 | 29.4% | 6 |
| 2019 | 18 | 7 | 38.9% | 2 |
| 2018 | 34 | 19 | 55.9% | 5 |
| 2017 | 21 | 7 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2015 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2010 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2006 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1999 | 23 | 6 | 26.1% | 4 |
| 1998 | 38 | 14 | 36.8% | 5 |
| 1997 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 7 |
Over 264 matches (Aug 2015 – Apr 2025), Lucchese 1905 drew 102 where the draw model expected 82.7 from those particular fixtures — about 19 more, or 2.6 standard errors, more of a gap than most, though roughly one subject in twenty looks like this by chance.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 6 times running. A flat league average would have expected 79.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.