What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 21 Oct 1995 → 16 May 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 10 Nov 2017 → 26 Apr 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 13 | 28 Jul 2017 → 29 Oct 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 10 Oct 2020 → 25 Nov 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 25 Oct 2002 → 26 Jan 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 15 Feb 2004 → 02 Apr 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 11 Aug 2002 → 06 Oct 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 27 Apr 1997 → 11 Jun 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 27 Jan 2021 → 06 Mar 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 6 | 16 Mar 2003 → 27 Apr 2003 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2. Bundesliga | 136 | 34 | 25.0% | 1 | 19 |
| 3. Liga | 76 | 25 | 32.9% | 0 | 9 |
| Regionalliga Nord | 34 | 4 | 11.8% | 1 | 14 |
| DFB-Pokal | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 1 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2024 | 18 | 6 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2023 | 21 | 8 | 38.1% | 5 |
| 2022 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2021 | 22 | 7 | 31.8% | 7 |
| 2020 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 9 |
| 2019 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2018 | 18 | 3 | 16.7% | 12 |
| 2017 | 16 | 1 | 6.3% | 13 |
| 2016 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2015 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2012 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2010 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2009 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2006 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2004 | 17 | 5 | 29.4% | 8 |
| 2003 | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 6 |
| 2002 | 17 | 1 | 5.9% | 8 |
| 1997 | 17 | 5 | 29.4% | 8 |
| 1996 | 32 | 8 | 25.0% | 11 |
| 1995 | 19 | 4 | 21.1% | 8 |
Over 117 matches (Aug 2015 – Aug 2025), VfB Lübeck drew 30 where the draw model expected 31.0 from those particular fixtures — about 1 fewer, or 0.2 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 30.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.