What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | 18 Oct 2009 → 24 Jan 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 12 | 07 Mar 2020 → 23 Sep 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 14 Sep 2002 → 24 Nov 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 11 Feb 2018 → 21 Apr 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 10 | 15 May 2012 → 22 Sep 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 9 | 04 Jan 2026 → 22 Feb 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 22 May 2015 → 03 Oct 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 11 Apr 2010 → 28 Aug 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 05 Mar 2006 → 30 Apr 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 29 Sep 2019 → 23 Nov 2019 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie B | 410 | 133 | 32.4% | 11 | 12 |
| Serie A | 228 | 65 | 28.5% | 7 | 14 |
| Serie C | 110 | 28 | 25.5% | 5 | 11 |
| Coppa Italia | 28 | 4 | 14.3% | 1 | 3 |
| UEFA Europa League | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19 | 4 | 21.1% | 9 |
| 2025 | 18 | 4 | 22.2% | 6 |
| 2021 | 21 | 7 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2020 | 37 | 9 | 24.3% | 12 |
| 2019 | 38 | 9 | 23.7% | 8 |
| 2018 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 11 |
| 2017 | 22 | 5 | 22.7% | 5 |
| 2016 | 22 | 7 | 31.8% | 7 |
| 2015 | 44 | 12 | 27.3% | 9 |
| 2014 | 43 | 10 | 23.3% | 8 |
| 2013 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 6 |
| 2012 | 47 | 12 | 25.5% | 10 |
| 2011 | 45 | 12 | 26.7% | 8 |
| 2010 | 43 | 12 | 27.9% | 9 |
| 2009 | 43 | 12 | 27.9% | 12 |
| 2008 | 44 | 17 | 38.6% | 7 |
| 2007 | 37 | 13 | 35.1% | 6 |
| 2006 | 49 | 19 | 38.8% | 9 |
| 2005 | 39 | 11 | 28.2% | 5 |
| 2004 | 42 | 13 | 31.0% | 5 |
| 2003 | 42 | 22 | 52.4% | 5 |
| 2002 | 16 | 2 | 12.5% | 12 |
Over 257 matches (Jan 2015 – Aug 2026), AS Livorno drew 68 where the draw model expected 77.6 from those particular fixtures — about 10 fewer, or 1.3 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 79.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.