What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 18 Mar 1996 → 18 Aug 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 13 | 24 Sep 1994 → 18 Feb 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 9 | 19 Sep 1997 → 30 Nov 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 8 | 21 Feb 1997 → 11 Apr 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 8 | 05 Mar 1994 → 16 Apr 1994 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 6 | 29 Aug 1995 → 01 Oct 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 6 | 30 Apr 1994 → 03 Sep 1994 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 5 | 26 Apr 1998 → 21 May 1998 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 4 | 20 Oct 1996 → 17 Nov 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 4 | 04 Nov 1995 → 25 Nov 1995 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2. Bundesliga | 136 | 33 | 24.3% | 0 | 17 |
| Bundesliga | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 2 | 8 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 17 | 6 | 35.3% | 5 |
| 1997 | 34 | 7 | 20.6% | 9 |
| 1996 | 32 | 7 | 21.9% | 17 |
| 1995 | 36 | 12 | 33.3% | 6 |
| 1994 | 31 | 3 | 9.7% | 12 |
| 1993 | 20 | 9 | 45.0% | 3 |
Over 170 matches (Aug 1993 – Jun 1998), VfB Leipzig drew 44 where the draw model expected 46.5 from those particular fixtures — about 3 fewer, or 0.4 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 46.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.