What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 21 Apr 2021 → 09 Oct 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 10 | 13 Feb 2022 → 26 Mar 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 9 | 12 Oct 2025 → 08 Dec 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 21 Sep 2024 → 04 Nov 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 07 Nov 2020 → 23 Dec 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 7 | 13 Apr 2024 → 25 Aug 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 7 | 26 Dec 2023 → 17 Feb 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 29 Jan 2023 → 05 Mar 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 25 Aug 2019 → 29 Sep 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 6 | 31 Mar 2025 → 23 Aug 2025 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie C | 204 | 56 | 27.5% | 1 | 11 |
| Serie B | 38 | 8 | 21.1% | 6 | 7 |
| Coppa Italia | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20 | 6 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 2025 | 37 | 11 | 29.7% | 9 |
| 2024 | 39 | 9 | 23.1% | 9 |
| 2023 | 37 | 11 | 29.7% | 7 |
| 2022 | 39 | 9 | 23.1% | 10 |
| 2021 | 40 | 12 | 30.0% | 11 |
| 2020 | 24 | 6 | 25.0% | 9 |
| 2019 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 2015 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 244 matches (Aug 2015 – Aug 2026), Calcio Lecco 1912 drew 64 where the draw model expected 75.0 from those particular fixtures — about 11 fewer, or 1.5 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 74.6 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.