What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 29 Aug 2020 → 03 Nov 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 13 | 11 Sep 2013 → 07 Dec 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 04 Jul 2020 → 23 Aug 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 16 Aug 2015 → 24 Oct 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 10 | 02 Jul 2022 → 10 Sep 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 08 Apr 2012 → 16 Jun 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 20 Jul 2024 → 05 Oct 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 25 Aug 2021 → 27 Oct 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 16 Dec 2020 → 13 Mar 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 23 Jul 2016 → 17 Sep 2016 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J1 League | 500 | 116 | 23.2% | 4 | 15 |
| Emperor's Cup | 72 | 20 | 27.8% | 0 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 4 |
| 2025 | 40 | 13 | 32.5% | 7 |
| 2024 | 40 | 13 | 32.5% | 9 |
| 2023 | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 8 |
| 2022 | 37 | 6 | 16.2% | 10 |
| 2021 | 44 | 11 | 25.0% | 9 |
| 2020 | 35 | 5 | 14.3% | 13 |
| 2019 | 37 | 13 | 35.1% | 5 |
| 2018 | 38 | 7 | 18.4% | 8 |
| 2017 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 7 |
| 2016 | 40 | 8 | 20.0% | 9 |
| 2015 | 37 | 6 | 16.2% | 11 |
| 2014 | 36 | 8 | 22.2% | 9 |
| 2013 | 38 | 7 | 18.4% | 13 |
| 2012 | 37 | 9 | 24.3% | 10 |
| 2011 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2010 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 2009 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2008 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2007 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2006 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2005 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 2004 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2003 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2002 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 439 matches (Mar 2015 – Oct 2026), Kawasaki Frontale drew 106 where the draw model expected 98.9 from those particular fixtures — about 7 more, or 0.8 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 107.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.