Fatih Karagümrük
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 231 matches (Sep 2015 – May 2026), Fatih Karagümrük drew 58 where the draw model expected 56.0 from those particular fixtures — about 2 more, or 0.3 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 56.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 11 Nov 2023 → 16 Jan 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 9 | 15 Aug 2025 → 19 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 7 | 21 Dec 2025 → 16 Feb 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 7 | 03 Oct 2022 → 10 Nov 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 6 | 29 Dec 2021 → 05 Feb 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 6 | 21 Nov 2021 → 19 Dec 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 6 | 03 Jan 2021 → 24 Jan 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 5 | 13 Mar 2026 → 18 Apr 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 5 | 03 Apr 2024 → 29 Apr 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 5 | 24 Jan 2024 → 10 Feb 2024 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Süper Lig | 186 | 49 | 26.3% | 3 | 9 |
| Turkish Cup | 66 | 11 | 16.7% | 2 | 6 |
| Club Friendlies | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19 | 3 | 15.8% | 6 |
| 2025 | 21 | 4 | 19.1% | 9 |
| 2024 | 30 | 6 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 2023 | 40 | 14 | 35.0% | 7 |
| 2022 | 41 | 9 | 22.0% | 7 |
| 2021 | 47 | 12 | 25.5% | 6 |
| 2020 | 19 | 9 | 47.4% | 3 |
| 2019 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2018 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2017 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2016 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2015 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2014 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2013 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2012 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2006 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2005 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 2004 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1993 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1992 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1991 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1990 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1978 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1965 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1964 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1963 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1962 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 03 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Oct 09:00 |
Kasımpaşa SK
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.4% | ITL · Club Friendlies |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.