What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 26 Nov 2024 → 16 Apr 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 8 | 05 Oct 2025 → 08 Nov 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 8 | 26 May 2025 → 11 Aug 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 8 | 15 Jun 2024 → 10 Jul 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 6 | 11 Aug 2024 → 01 Sep 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 6 | 30 Nov 2021 → 17 Mar 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 6 | 27 Jul 2016 → 08 Feb 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 5 | 20 Aug 2025 → 21 Sep 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 5 | 20 Jul 2022 → 13 Aug 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 5 | 05 Jun 2022 → 19 Jun 2022 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 152 | 46 | 30.3% | 0 | 8 |
| Copa do Brasil | 52 | 19 | 36.5% | 1 | 6 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 2025 | 40 | 8 | 20.0% | 8 |
| 2024 | 46 | 15 | 32.6% | 8 |
| 2023 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2022 | 42 | 14 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2021 | 40 | 14 | 35.0% | 4 |
| 2020 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 4 |
| 2019 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2018 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2017 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2016 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 5 |
Over 205 matches (Apr 2016 – Aug 2026), EC Juventude drew 65 where the draw model expected 56.9 from those particular fixtures — about 8 more, or 1.3 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 55.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.