What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 04 Jun 2011 → 14 Aug 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 15 | 06 Oct 2016 → 08 Nov 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 13 | 05 Sep 2020 → 04 Jun 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 16 Oct 2023 → 09 Sep 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 27 Jul 2000 → 02 Jun 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 14 Oct 2024 → 10 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 13 Oct 2015 → 06 Jun 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 12 Sep 2007 → 28 May 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 10 | 21 Aug 2002 → 20 Aug 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 10 | 20 Apr 1994 → 16 Nov 1994 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 231 | 49 | 21.2% | 2 | 9 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 122 | 23 | 18.9% | 2 | 9 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 120 | 19 | 15.8% | 5 | 8 |
| UEFA Nations League | 26 | 7 | 26.9% | 0 | 6 |
| Malta International Tournament | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| UEFA European Championship | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Nordic Championship | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 | 2 |
| FIFA World Cup | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 | 2 |
| Baltic Cup | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Cyprus International Tournament | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Millennium Cup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Chinese FA Cup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 2 |
| 2025 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 7 |
| 2024 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 8 |
| 2023 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 7 |
| 2022 | 14 | 8 | 57.1% | 2 |
| 2021 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 5 |
| 2020 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 2019 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 8 |
| 2018 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 5 |
| 2017 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 11 |
| 2016 | 17 | 3 | 17.7% | 7 |
| 2015 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 3 |
| 2014 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 6 |
| 2013 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 2012 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2011 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 2010 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2009 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 5 |
| 2008 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 6 |
| 2007 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2006 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 2005 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 7 |
| 2004 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 2003 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2002 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 2001 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 2000 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 6 |
| 1999 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 7 |
| 1998 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1997 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 1996 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 5 |
| 1995 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 3 |
| 1994 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 1993 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 4 |
| 1992 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1991 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 1990 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1989 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1988 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1987 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 1986 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1985 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 1984 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 1983 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1982 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 1981 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1980 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 |
| 1979 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1978 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1977 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1976 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1975 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1974 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1973 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1972 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1971 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1970 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1969 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1968 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1967 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1965 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1964 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1962 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1960 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1957 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1956 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1955 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1954 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1953 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1951 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1948 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1947 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1946 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 147 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Iceland drew 35 where the draw model expected 30.2 from those particular fixtures — about 5 more, or 1.0 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 34.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.