What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | 16 Oct 2010 → 12 Mar 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 12 Sep 2021 → 16 Jan 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 10 May 2025 → 09 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 12 | 28 Feb 2021 → 23 May 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 12 | 10 Nov 2012 → 02 Mar 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 18 May 2024 → 24 Oct 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 28 Apr 2017 → 17 Sep 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 11 | 16 Dec 2014 → 10 Apr 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 11 | 17 Oct 2009 → 06 Feb 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 10 | 30 Oct 2024 → 15 Dec 2024 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2. Bundesliga | 316 | 87 | 27.5% | 1 | 14 |
| 3. Liga | 190 | 48 | 25.3% | 3 | 16 |
| Bundesliga | 102 | 25 | 24.5% | 2 | 8 |
| DFB-Pokal | 33 | 5 | 15.2% | 1 | 6 |
| Club Friendlies | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 5 |
| UEFA Conference League | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 2 | 5 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 9 |
| 2025 | 41 | 6 | 14.6% | 12 |
| 2024 | 41 | 12 | 29.3% | 11 |
| 2023 | 35 | 6 | 17.1% | 9 |
| 2022 | 35 | 10 | 28.6% | 8 |
| 2021 | 40 | 6 | 15.0% | 13 |
| 2020 | 30 | 8 | 26.7% | 5 |
| 2019 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 9 |
| 2018 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 7 |
| 2017 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 11 |
| 2016 | 35 | 11 | 31.4% | 7 |
| 2015 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 9 |
| 2014 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 6 |
| 2013 | 39 | 11 | 28.2% | 8 |
| 2012 | 39 | 9 | 23.1% | 5 |
| 2011 | 41 | 14 | 34.2% | 7 |
| 2010 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 9 |
| 2009 | 21 | 4 | 19.1% | 9 |
| 2008 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 443 matches (Feb 2015 – Oct 2026), 1. FC Heidenheim drew 110 where the draw model expected 115.2 from those particular fixtures — about 5 fewer, or 0.6 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 117.0 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.