What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 20 Dec 2011 → 20 Mar 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 02 Oct 2010 → 08 Jan 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 13 | 12 Mar 2011 → 20 Aug 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 19 Sep 2009 → 24 Nov 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 7 | 25 Jan 2011 → 26 Feb 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 7 | 17 Apr 2010 → 28 Aug 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 7 | 26 Dec 2009 → 30 Jan 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 5 | 09 Oct 2011 → 22 Oct 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 5 | 04 Sep 2010 → 25 Sep 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 4 | 09 Apr 2012 → 28 Apr 2012 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National League | 136 | 26 | 19.1% | 4 | 14 |
| FA Cup | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 1 | 3 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2020 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2019 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2012 | 20 | 2 | 10.0% | 12 |
| 2011 | 50 | 10 | 20.0% | 13 |
| 2010 | 43 | 7 | 16.3% | 11 |
| 2009 | 24 | 7 | 29.2% | 10 |
| 2006 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2005 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2004 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1994 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1993 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1927 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 149 matches (Nov 1927 – Nov 2021), Hayes & Yeading United drew 29 where the draw model expected 36.9 from those particular fixtures — about 8 fewer, or 1.5 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 37.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.