What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20 | 07 Dec 2008 → 19 Apr 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 17 | 28 Jan 2006 → 13 May 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 16 | 18 Jul 2026 → 01 Nov 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 15 | 07 Apr 2018 → 23 Sep 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 15 | 27 Oct 2010 → 19 Feb 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 15 | 07 Nov 2004 → 19 Mar 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 13 | 14 Feb 2004 → 08 May 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 13 | 19 Apr 2002 → 26 Oct 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 13 | 11 Nov 2000 → 04 Mar 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 12 | 11 May 1996 → 21 Sep 1996 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bundesliga | 892 | 241 | 27.0% | 8 | 17 |
| 2. Bundesliga | 238 | 66 | 27.7% | 4 | 18 |
| UEFA Europa League | 124 | 20 | 16.1% | 1 | 14 |
| DFB-Pokal | 55 | 16 | 29.1% | 2 | 5 |
| UEFA Champions League | 41 | 9 | 22.0% | 6 | 9 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 34 | 7 | 20.6% | 4 | 7 |
| Club Friendlies | 15 | 1 | 6.7% | 6 | 6 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 6 |
| UEFA Super Cup | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Intercontinental Cup (Toyota Cup) | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 16 |
| 2025 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 5 |
| 2024 | 37 | 11 | 29.7% | 6 |
| 2023 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 6 |
| 2022 | 39 | 7 | 18.0% | 11 |
| 2021 | 41 | 18 | 43.9% | 4 |
| 2020 | 32 | 7 | 21.9% | 10 |
| 2019 | 39 | 13 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2018 | 39 | 8 | 20.5% | 15 |
| 2017 | 38 | 7 | 18.4% | 8 |
| 2016 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 8 |
| 2015 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 2014 | 37 | 8 | 21.6% | 7 |
| 2013 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 7 |
| 2012 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 6 |
| 2011 | 37 | 14 | 37.8% | 7 |
| 2010 | 42 | 10 | 23.8% | 9 |
| 2009 | 55 | 12 | 21.8% | 17 |
| 2008 | 48 | 12 | 25.0% | 11 |
| 2007 | 48 | 13 | 27.1% | 6 |
| 2006 | 43 | 12 | 27.9% | 17 |
| 2005 | 44 | 8 | 18.2% | 9 |
| 2004 | 34 | 3 | 8.8% | 13 |
| 2003 | 36 | 12 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2002 | 33 | 9 | 27.3% | 13 |
| 2001 | 34 | 13 | 38.2% | 6 |
| 2000 | 45 | 11 | 24.4% | 7 |
| 1999 | 33 | 12 | 36.4% | 6 |
| 1998 | 32 | 12 | 37.5% | 5 |
| 1997 | 37 | 11 | 29.7% | 6 |
| 1996 | 40 | 12 | 30.0% | 12 |
| 1995 | 34 | 13 | 38.2% | 5 |
| 1994 | 31 | 9 | 29.0% | 8 |
| 1993 | 20 | 3 | 15.0% | 8 |
| 1991 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1989 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1987 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1985 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1984 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1983 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 2 |
| 1982 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1981 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 7 |
| 1980 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 6 |
| 1979 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1977 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1976 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 1975 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1974 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1971 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1970 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1968 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 8 |
| 1967 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1964 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1963 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1961 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1960 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
Over 445 matches (Jan 2015 – Nov 2026), Hamburger SV drew 115 where the draw model expected 109.7 from those particular fixtures — about 5 more, or 0.6 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 116.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.