What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 24 Sep 2024 → 08 Dec 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 12 | 02 Oct 2022 → 03 Dec 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 8 | 07 Mar 2021 → 11 Apr 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 8 | 01 Nov 2011 → 10 Dec 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 6 | 05 Mar 2024 → 07 Apr 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 6 | 15 Oct 2017 → 12 Nov 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 6 | 31 Jan 2012 → 10 Mar 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 5 | 21 Feb 2026 → 15 Mar 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 5 | 18 Jan 2026 → 12 Feb 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 5 | 21 Jan 2024 → 14 Feb 2024 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie C | 314 | 109 | 34.7% | 1 | 13 |
| Serie B | 42 | 11 | 26.2% | 3 | 7 |
| Coppa Italia | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19 | 5 | 26.3% | 5 |
| 2025 | 36 | 15 | 41.7% | 4 |
| 2024 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 13 |
| 2023 | 36 | 13 | 36.1% | 5 |
| 2022 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 12 |
| 2021 | 41 | 13 | 31.7% | 8 |
| 2020 | 25 | 11 | 44.0% | 4 |
| 2019 | 26 | 14 | 53.8% | 4 |
| 2018 | 35 | 14 | 40.0% | 4 |
| 2017 | 21 | 4 | 19.1% | 6 |
| 2013 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2012 | 23 | 5 | 21.7% | 6 |
| 2011 | 23 | 7 | 30.4% | 8 |
| 2010 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
Over 317 matches (Jul 2017 – Jul 2026), AS Gubbio 1910 drew 109 where the draw model expected 100.0 from those particular fixtures — about 9 more, or 1.1 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 95.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.