What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 13 Dec 2008 → 14 Mar 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 9 | 15 Oct 2011 → 03 Dec 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 9 | 05 Sep 2010 → 20 Oct 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 8 | 13 Dec 2020 → 03 Feb 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 7 | 01 Dec 2012 → 26 Jan 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 7 | 10 Jan 2011 → 18 Feb 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 6 | 16 Feb 2022 → 12 Mar 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 6 | 27 Sep 2020 → 21 Oct 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 6 | 23 Mar 2013 → 20 Apr 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 6 | 12 Oct 2008 → 08 Nov 2008 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie B | 252 | 92 | 36.5% | 2 | 13 |
| Serie C | 76 | 27 | 35.5% | 3 | 8 |
| Coppa Italia | 14 | 1 | 7.1% | 1 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2022 | 18 | 7 | 38.9% | 6 |
| 2021 | 41 | 16 | 39.0% | 5 |
| 2020 | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 6 |
| 2016 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2013 | 23 | 6 | 26.1% | 6 |
| 2012 | 44 | 17 | 38.6% | 5 |
| 2011 | 44 | 15 | 34.1% | 9 |
| 2010 | 45 | 18 | 40.0% | 9 |
| 2009 | 44 | 13 | 29.5% | 11 |
| 2008 | 44 | 17 | 38.6% | 6 |
| 2007 | 20 | 7 | 35.0% | 4 |
| 2006 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 343 matches (Aug 2006 – Aug 2026), US Grosseto drew 121 where the draw model expected 104.3 from those particular fixtures — about 17 more, or 2.0 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 4 times running. A flat league average would have expected 107.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.