What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 08 Oct 2023 → 27 Apr 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 15 | 09 Oct 2019 → 08 Dec 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 27 Jul 2021 → 03 Oct 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 14 | 20 May 2012 → 05 Aug 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 12 | 03 Jun 2015 → 21 Jul 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 12 | 08 Aug 2013 → 15 Sep 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 10 Oct 2021 → 20 Nov 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 11 | 19 Jul 2014 → 10 Sep 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 19 Nov 2025 → 25 Feb 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 14 May 2017 → 15 Jun 2017 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 527 | 137 | 26.0% | 3 | 22 |
| Copa do Brasil | 80 | 25 | 31.3% | 2 | 7 |
| Intercontinental Cup (Toyota Cup) | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| FIFA Club World Cup | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40 | 12 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 2025 | 42 | 13 | 31.0% | 6 |
| 2024 | 42 | 12 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 2023 | 48 | 9 | 18.8% | 13 |
| 2022 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2021 | 58 | 13 | 22.4% | 14 |
| 2020 | 32 | 13 | 40.6% | 8 |
| 2019 | 44 | 10 | 22.7% | 15 |
| 2018 | 42 | 13 | 31.0% | 4 |
| 2017 | 46 | 9 | 19.6% | 9 |
| 2016 | 46 | 14 | 30.4% | 8 |
| 2015 | 47 | 10 | 21.3% | 12 |
| 2014 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 11 |
| 2013 | 44 | 14 | 31.8% | 12 |
| 2012 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 14 |
| 1995 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1983 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
Over 488 matches (Apr 2015 – Nov 2026), Grêmio drew 128 where the draw model expected 138.2 from those particular fixtures — about 10 fewer, or 1.0 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 131.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.