What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 25 Aug 2025 → 25 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 7 | 05 Apr 2025 → 10 May 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 7 | 06 Apr 2024 → 08 May 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 5 | 04 Jul 2026 → 01 Aug 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 5 | 16 May 2026 → 17 Jun 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 5 | 28 Jul 2024 → 26 Aug 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 4 | 02 Feb 2017 → 04 Mar 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 3 | 12 Oct 2026 → 24 Oct 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 3 | 04 Apr 2026 → 18 Apr 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 3 | 13 Jul 2025 → 28 Jul 2025 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Veikkausliiga | 91 | 27 | 29.7% | 0 | 9 |
| Finnish Cup | 48 | 10 | 20.8% | 2 | 4 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30 | 10 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2025 | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 9 |
| 2024 | 31 | 8 | 25.8% | 7 |
| 2023 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 2022 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2021 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2019 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2017 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 2016 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2015 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2014 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2013 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2012 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2011 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 2010 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 2009 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2008 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2006 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2005 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2004 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2002 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
Over 112 matches (Feb 2015 – Oct 2026), IF Gnistan drew 32 where the draw model expected 24.4 from those particular fixtures — about 8 more, or 1.8 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 4 times running. A flat league average would have expected 26.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.