What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 19 Aug 2018 → 14 Apr 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 15 | 19 Apr 2014 → 20 Aug 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 26 Dec 2015 → 29 Apr 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 30 Aug 2014 → 26 Oct 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 10 | 20 Jul 2025 → 27 Sep 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 09 Nov 2024 → 16 Mar 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 29 Apr 2023 → 24 Jun 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 16 Jun 2021 → 13 Aug 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 10 | 29 Aug 2020 → 10 Oct 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 31 Mar 2018 → 05 May 2018 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J1 League | 468 | 115 | 24.6% | 0 | 19 |
| Emperor's Cup | 80 | 20 | 25.0% | 0 | 6 |
| Club Friendlies | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| FIFA Club World Cup | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 3 |
| 2025 | 41 | 7 | 17.1% | 10 |
| 2024 | 44 | 13 | 29.5% | 8 |
| 2023 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 10 |
| 2022 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 5 |
| 2021 | 43 | 9 | 20.9% | 10 |
| 2020 | 35 | 5 | 14.3% | 10 |
| 2019 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 7 |
| 2018 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 12 |
| 2017 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 6 |
| 2016 | 37 | 8 | 21.6% | 10 |
| 2015 | 41 | 11 | 26.8% | 9 |
| 2014 | 40 | 6 | 15.0% | 15 |
| 2013 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 2012 | 39 | 12 | 30.8% | 5 |
| 2011 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2010 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2009 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 2008 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 2007 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 2006 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 2005 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2004 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2003 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1993 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1991 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
Over 434 matches (Mar 2015 – Oct 2026), Gamba Osaka drew 104 where the draw model expected 111.8 from those particular fixtures — about 8 fewer, or 0.9 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 106.3 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.