What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 13 Oct 2021 → 09 Dec 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 09 Jul 2015 → 06 Sep 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 08 Dec 2013 → 28 May 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 03 Sep 2016 → 17 Oct 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 10 | 20 Jul 2019 → 22 Sep 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 04 Oct 2015 → 22 Nov 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 26 May 2013 → 31 Jul 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 30 Jun 2025 → 02 Aug 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 24 Aug 2024 → 26 Oct 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 03 Sep 2022 → 16 Oct 2022 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 565 | 140 | 24.8% | 8 | 14 |
| Copa do Brasil | 82 | 16 | 19.5% | 1 | 6 |
| FIFA Club World Cup | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 37 | 11 | 29.7% | 8 |
| 2025 | 54 | 10 | 18.5% | 9 |
| 2024 | 42 | 11 | 26.2% | 9 |
| 2023 | 44 | 9 | 20.5% | 7 |
| 2022 | 46 | 9 | 19.6% | 9 |
| 2021 | 55 | 12 | 21.8% | 14 |
| 2020 | 33 | 7 | 21.2% | 7 |
| 2019 | 46 | 13 | 28.3% | 10 |
| 2018 | 44 | 10 | 22.7% | 9 |
| 2017 | 46 | 15 | 32.6% | 9 |
| 2016 | 45 | 14 | 31.1% | 11 |
| 2015 | 44 | 7 | 15.9% | 14 |
| 2014 | 43 | 10 | 23.3% | 11 |
| 2013 | 40 | 10 | 25.0% | 10 |
| 2012 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 9 |
Over 536 matches (May 2015 – Oct 2026), Fluminense drew 128 where the draw model expected 150.4 from those particular fixtures — about 22 fewer, or 2.2 standard errors, more of a gap than most, though roughly one subject in twenty looks like this by chance.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 5 times running. A flat league average would have expected 143.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.