What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27 | 07 Apr 2015 → 01 Nov 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 19 | 13 Aug 2021 → 15 Dec 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 18 | 20 Oct 2009 → 24 Jan 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 18 | 15 Apr 2006 → 11 Nov 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 16 | 09 Nov 2008 → 08 Feb 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 16 | 30 Apr 1995 → 19 Nov 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 13 | 03 Apr 2022 → 14 Aug 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 12 | 26 Jan 2025 → 30 Mar 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 11 | 03 Oct 2024 → 28 Nov 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 11 | 12 Sep 1998 → 22 Nov 1998 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 1118 | 318 | 28.4% | 1 | 22 |
| UEFA Europa League | 97 | 30 | 30.9% | 7 | 7 |
| Coppa Italia | 64 | 9 | 14.1% | 2 | 5 |
| UEFA Conference League | 54 | 11 | 20.4% | 16 | 16 |
| Serie B | 46 | 16 | 34.8% | 2 | 9 |
| UEFA Champions League | 45 | 15 | 33.3% | 8 | 8 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 28 | 4 | 14.3% | 1 | 6 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 20 | 3 | 15.0% | 3 | 5 |
| Club Friendlies | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 0 | 3 |
| Supercoppa Italiana | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43 | 13 | 30.2% | 6 |
| 2025 | 55 | 11 | 20.0% | 12 |
| 2024 | 56 | 19 | 33.9% | 11 |
| 2023 | 63 | 15 | 23.8% | 10 |
| 2022 | 48 | 10 | 20.8% | 13 |
| 2021 | 46 | 11 | 23.9% | 19 |
| 2020 | 39 | 14 | 35.9% | 6 |
| 2019 | 43 | 15 | 34.9% | 6 |
| 2018 | 39 | 11 | 28.2% | 10 |
| 2017 | 44 | 12 | 27.3% | 6 |
| 2016 | 49 | 15 | 30.6% | 8 |
| 2015 | 58 | 10 | 17.2% | 27 |
| 2014 | 52 | 14 | 26.9% | 7 |
| 2013 | 48 | 7 | 14.6% | 9 |
| 2012 | 44 | 12 | 27.3% | 6 |
| 2011 | 40 | 17 | 42.5% | 4 |
| 2010 | 46 | 9 | 19.6% | 6 |
| 2009 | 45 | 8 | 17.8% | 12 |
| 2008 | 56 | 12 | 21.4% | 10 |
| 2007 | 48 | 19 | 39.6% | 5 |
| 2006 | 41 | 8 | 19.5% | 18 |
| 2005 | 39 | 11 | 28.2% | 10 |
| 2004 | 42 | 14 | 33.3% | 9 |
| 2003 | 20 | 9 | 45.0% | 3 |
| 2002 | 18 | 5 | 27.8% | 7 |
| 2001 | 44 | 12 | 27.3% | 9 |
| 2000 | 38 | 13 | 34.2% | 8 |
| 1999 | 44 | 16 | 36.4% | 5 |
| 1998 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 11 |
| 1997 | 37 | 15 | 40.5% | 6 |
| 1996 | 37 | 14 | 37.8% | 10 |
| 1995 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 16 |
| 1994 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 4 |
| 1990 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1989 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1986 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1984 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1982 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1977 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1975 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1973 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1972 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1970 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1969 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1968 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1967 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1966 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1965 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1964 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1962 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1961 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1960 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1957 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1956 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
Over 583 matches (Jan 2015 – Nov 2026), ACF Fiorentina drew 156 where the draw model expected 145.3 from those particular fixtures — about 11 more, or 1.0 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 150.6 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.