What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 22 Mar 2015 → 15 Jul 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 15 | 12 May 2019 → 17 Aug 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 15 | 17 Dec 2011 → 20 May 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 14 | 16 Sep 2020 → 15 Nov 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 22 Jun 2016 → 20 Aug 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 06 Jun 2018 → 19 Aug 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 03 Mar 2018 → 28 Apr 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 01 Oct 2016 → 18 Mar 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 10 | 15 Mar 2014 → 06 May 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 10 | 01 Dec 2012 → 03 May 2013 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J1 League | 499 | 113 | 22.7% | 1 | 17 |
| Emperor's Cup | 60 | 17 | 28.3% | 0 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2025 | 43 | 12 | 27.9% | 9 |
| 2024 | 40 | 10 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2023 | 37 | 8 | 21.6% | 6 |
| 2022 | 36 | 8 | 22.2% | 7 |
| 2021 | 39 | 9 | 23.1% | 9 |
| 2020 | 34 | 6 | 17.7% | 14 |
| 2019 | 36 | 7 | 19.4% | 15 |
| 2018 | 37 | 9 | 24.3% | 10 |
| 2017 | 35 | 11 | 31.4% | 7 |
| 2016 | 36 | 7 | 19.4% | 11 |
| 2015 | 36 | 7 | 19.4% | 17 |
| 2014 | 37 | 12 | 32.4% | 10 |
| 2013 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 9 |
| 2012 | 36 | 6 | 16.7% | 12 |
| 2011 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 2010 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 2009 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2008 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2007 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2006 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2005 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2004 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2003 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
Over 421 matches (Mar 2015 – Oct 2026), FC Tokyo drew 97 where the draw model expected 111.8 from those particular fixtures — about 15 fewer, or 1.6 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 103.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.