What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 118 matches (Aug 1988 – Oct 2025), FC Salzburg drew 16 where the draw model expected 26.0 from those particular fixtures — about 10 fewer, or 2.2 standard errors, more of a gap than most, though roughly one subject in twenty looks like this by chance.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 5 times running.
A flat league average would have expected 25.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims.
These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
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