What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 368 matches (Mar 2015 – Oct 2026), Ararat Yerevan drew 75 where the draw model expected 80.3 from those particular fixtures — about 5 fewer, or 0.7 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 75.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 03 May 2014 → 23 Nov 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 16 | 03 Dec 2016 → 12 Aug 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 16 | 19 Sep 2006 → 27 Apr 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 15 | 21 Nov 2025 → 19 May 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 14 | 17 Mar 2009 → 27 Jun 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 14 | 03 Apr 2008 → 17 Jun 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 13 | 10 Jun 2001 → 23 Sep 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 11 | 29 Sep 2023 → 05 Dec 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 11 | 22 May 2021 → 17 Oct 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 11 | 30 Nov 1999 → 09 May 2000 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 682 | 138 | 20.2% | 0 | 17 |
| Armenian Cup | 116 | 21 | 18.1% | 3 | 7 |
| UEFA Europa League | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 2 | 6 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 3 | 4 |
| UEFA Champions League | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 | 6 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15 | 1 | 6.7% | 13 |
| 2025 | 29 | 5 | 17.2% | 9 |
| 2024 | 34 | 7 | 20.6% | 6 |
| 2023 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 11 |
| 2022 | 39 | 8 | 20.5% | 10 |
| 2021 | 33 | 7 | 21.2% | 11 |
| 2020 | 24 | 6 | 25.0% | 9 |
| 2019 | 31 | 6 | 19.4% | 9 |
| 2018 | 36 | 8 | 22.2% | 6 |
| 2017 | 29 | 4 | 13.8% | 15 |
| 2016 | 31 | 9 | 29.0% | 8 |
| 2015 | 30 | 7 | 23.3% | 8 |
| 2014 | 31 | 6 | 19.4% | 19 |
| 2013 | 60 | 11 | 18.3% | 10 |
| 2011 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2009 | 29 | 8 | 27.6% | 14 |
| 2008 | 36 | 6 | 16.7% | 14 |
| 2007 | 35 | 5 | 14.3% | 8 |
| 2006 | 32 | 6 | 18.8% | 8 |
| 2005 | 21 | 3 | 14.3% | 10 |
| 2004 | 33 | 7 | 21.2% | 9 |
| 2002 | 25 | 7 | 28.0% | 4 |
| 2001 | 30 | 5 | 16.7% | 13 |
| 2000 | 33 | 7 | 21.2% | 9 |
| 1999 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 9 |
| 1998 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1997 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 1996 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 1995 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 5 |
| 1994 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1993 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 1992 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1975 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1974 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1972 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 03 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Oct 07:00 |
Ararat Yerevan
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 19.5% | ITL · Club Friendlies |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.