What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | 26 Nov 2011 → 11 Apr 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 15 | 12 Mar 2016 → 10 Sep 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 14 May 1995 → 30 Sep 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 12 | 10 Feb 2018 → 21 Apr 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 04 Apr 2017 → 02 Aug 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 06 Aug 2014 → 04 Oct 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 04 Sep 1993 → 20 Nov 1993 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 09 Apr 2000 → 25 May 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 17 May 1998 → 23 Aug 1998 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 05 May 2018 → 02 Sep 2018 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2. Bundesliga | 242 | 74 | 30.6% | 9 | 14 |
| 3. Liga | 203 | 53 | 26.1% | 4 | 15 |
| Regionalliga West | 36 | 8 | 22.2% | 0 | 16 |
| DFB-Pokal | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 4 |
| 2019 | 18 | 7 | 38.9% | 5 |
| 2018 | 38 | 8 | 21.1% | 12 |
| 2017 | 39 | 12 | 30.8% | 11 |
| 2016 | 36 | 7 | 19.4% | 15 |
| 2015 | 37 | 8 | 21.6% | 6 |
| 2014 | 22 | 6 | 27.3% | 11 |
| 2013 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2012 | 18 | 2 | 11.1% | 12 |
| 2011 | 18 | 6 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2000 | 17 | 5 | 29.4% | 9 |
| 1999 | 32 | 13 | 40.6% | 7 |
| 1998 | 36 | 13 | 36.1% | 9 |
| 1997 | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 6 |
| 1996 | 32 | 11 | 34.4% | 5 |
| 1995 | 36 | 7 | 19.4% | 14 |
| 1994 | 36 | 13 | 36.1% | 5 |
| 1993 | 19 | 3 | 15.8% | 11 |
Over 182 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), SC Fortuna Köln drew 47 where the draw model expected 51.0 from those particular fixtures — about 4 fewer, or 0.7 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 50.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.