What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 27 Mar 1983 → 28 Aug 1983 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 10 | 18 Aug 2010 → 29 May 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 10 | 17 Jul 2006 → 05 Dec 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 25 Jan 2013 → 16 Nov 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 15 Nov 1992 → 11 Apr 1993 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 9 | 02 Aug 1967 → 21 Jan 1968 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 04 Dec 2002 → 12 Oct 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 11 May 1969 → 22 Mar 1970 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 09 Sep 2024 → 24 Mar 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 30 Sep 2015 → 25 Nov 2015 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 129 | 31 | 24.0% | 0 | 7 |
| African Cup of Nations qualification | 112 | 19 | 17.0% | 5 | 5 |
| CECAFA Cup | 78 | 22 | 28.2% | 0 | 5 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 59 | 17 | 28.8% | 4 | 6 |
| African Cup of Nations | 30 | 4 | 13.3% | 0 | 5 |
| Jordan International Tournament | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 2025 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2024 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 2023 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2022 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 2 |
| 2021 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2020 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2019 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 2018 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2017 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2016 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 2015 | 15 | 5 | 33.3% | 7 |
| 2014 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 2013 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% | 9 |
| 2012 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 7 |
| 2011 | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 2 |
| 2010 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 2009 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2007 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 2006 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2005 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 2004 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2003 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 2002 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 5 |
| 2001 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 2000 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 6 |
| 1999 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1997 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1996 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1995 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 3 |
| 1994 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1993 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1992 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 6 |
| 1990 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1989 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1988 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1987 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 2 |
| 1986 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1984 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1983 | 20 | 4 | 20.0% | 11 |
| 1982 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 1981 | 8 | 5 | 62.5% | 3 |
| 1980 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1979 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1977 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1976 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1975 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1973 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1972 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1971 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1970 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1969 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 5 |
| 1968 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1967 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1966 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1965 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1964 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1963 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1962 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1961 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1959 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1957 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1956 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1954 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1949 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1948 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1947 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 414 matches (Dec 1947 – Sep 2026), Ethiopia drew 93 where the draw model expected 100.4 from those particular fixtures — about 7 fewer, or 0.9 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 100.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. 4 of the matches carry no model probability and are left out. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.