What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | 06 Nov 2022 → 15 May 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 12 | 21 May 2017 → 04 Nov 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 31 Oct 2004 → 23 Jan 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 08 Jan 2018 → 10 Mar 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 10 | 07 Oct 2012 → 20 Jan 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 9 | 01 Oct 2023 → 10 Dec 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 23 May 2015 → 02 Oct 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 13 Mar 2005 → 08 May 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 14 Dec 2025 → 31 Jan 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 09 Dec 2016 → 28 Jan 2017 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 410 | 100 | 24.4% | 5 | 21 |
| UEFA Europa League | 16 | 6 | 37.5% | 1 | 5 |
| Taça de Portugal | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 0 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 0 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30 | 8 | 26.7% | 6 |
| 2025 | 38 | 9 | 23.7% | 6 |
| 2024 | 37 | 11 | 29.7% | 6 |
| 2023 | 38 | 3 | 7.9% | 19 |
| 2022 | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 6 |
| 2021 | 19 | 7 | 36.8% | 4 |
| 2018 | 19 | 4 | 21.1% | 10 |
| 2017 | 34 | 7 | 20.6% | 12 |
| 2016 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 2015 | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 8 |
| 2014 | 36 | 14 | 38.9% | 6 |
| 2013 | 42 | 10 | 23.8% | 7 |
| 2012 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 2005 | 19 | 3 | 15.8% | 8 |
| 2004 | 15 | 3 | 20.0% | 8 |
Over 318 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), GD Estoril Praia drew 76 where the draw model expected 79.2 from those particular fixtures — about 3 fewer, or 0.4 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 80.3 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.