What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | 31 Aug 2003 → 11 Jan 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 13 | 11 Apr 1998 → 19 Oct 1998 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 18 Sep 2000 → 10 Dec 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 16 Mar 2025 → 17 May 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 27 Nov 2005 → 28 Jan 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 09 Feb 1998 → 29 Mar 1998 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 7 | 15 Mar 2026 → 02 May 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 01 Nov 2024 → 23 Dec 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 28 Sep 2023 → 24 Nov 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 19 Feb 2006 → 02 Apr 2006 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 508 | 162 | 31.9% | 4 | 16 |
| Taça de Portugal | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 1 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 1 | 2 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33 | 11 | 33.3% | 7 |
| 2025 | 35 | 10 | 28.6% | 9 |
| 2024 | 37 | 13 | 35.1% | 7 |
| 2023 | 18 | 4 | 22.2% | 7 |
| 2021 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2009 | 18 | 7 | 38.9% | 5 |
| 2008 | 28 | 9 | 32.1% | 5 |
| 2007 | 30 | 12 | 40.0% | 5 |
| 2006 | 32 | 8 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 2005 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2004 | 19 | 4 | 21.1% | 6 |
| 2003 | 15 | 1 | 6.7% | 14 |
| 2001 | 19 | 5 | 26.3% | 6 |
| 2000 | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 11 |
| 1999 | 33 | 13 | 39.4% | 5 |
| 1998 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 13 |
| 1997 | 35 | 12 | 34.3% | 6 |
| 1996 | 31 | 12 | 38.7% | 7 |
| 1995 | 35 | 13 | 37.1% | 6 |
| 1994 | 15 | 6 | 40.0% | 6 |
| 1990 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
Over 125 matches (Oct 2021 – Oct 2026), CF Estrela da Amadora drew 38 where the draw model expected 30.3 from those particular fixtures — about 8 more, or 1.6 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 31.3 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.