Esbjerg fB
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 193 matches (Feb 2015 – Jan 2026), Esbjerg fB drew 46 where the draw model expected 47.2 from those particular fixtures — about 1 fewer, or 0.2 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 46.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 20 Sep 2013 → 04 Nov 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 13 | 22 Apr 2013 → 25 Aug 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 10 | 06 Nov 2019 → 03 Mar 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 02 May 2016 → 29 Jul 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 24 Apr 2015 → 07 Jun 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 13 Aug 2018 → 26 Sep 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 7 | 21 Jun 2020 → 11 Nov 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 25 Sep 1963 → 07 May 1964 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 6 | 30 Nov 2018 → 24 Feb 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 6 | 21 Feb 2015 → 20 Mar 2015 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Superliga | 238 | 65 | 27.3% | 4 | 17 |
| Danish Cup | 65 | 11 | 16.9% | 2 | 5 |
| UEFA Europa League | 32 | 8 | 25.0% | 0 | 9 |
| UEFA Champions League | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 3 | 3 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2025 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 2024 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2023 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2022 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2021 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2020 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% | 7 |
| 2019 | 41 | 9 | 22.0% | 6 |
| 2018 | 25 | 6 | 24.0% | 8 |
| 2017 | 16 | 7 | 43.8% | 3 |
| 2016 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 10 |
| 2015 | 39 | 9 | 23.1% | 9 |
| 2014 | 39 | 16 | 41.0% | 4 |
| 2013 | 45 | 8 | 17.8% | 15 |
| 2012 | 21 | 7 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2011 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2010 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2009 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2008 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2006 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2005 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2003 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1985 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1980 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1979 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1978 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 3 |
| 1976 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1966 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1964 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1963 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1962 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1957 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, 02 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 02 Oct 11:00 |
Esbjerg fB
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.7% | ITL · Club Friendlies |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.