What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 24 Aug 2013 → 21 Dec 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 15 | 10 Aug 2008 → 21 Nov 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 31 Jan 2015 → 25 Apr 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 12 | 05 Apr 2011 → 13 Aug 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 12 Mar 2016 → 06 Aug 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 21 Nov 2015 → 21 Feb 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 07 Apr 2012 → 04 Aug 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 20 Oct 2023 → 27 Jan 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 08 Dec 2017 → 25 Feb 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 20 Feb 2010 → 31 Mar 2010 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3. Liga | 380 | 98 | 25.8% | 7 | 17 |
| Regionalliga Nordost | 84 | 25 | 29.8% | 2 | 8 |
| 2. Bundesliga | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 5 | 8 |
| UEFA Europa League | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 4 |
| DFB-Pokal | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Club Friendlies | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 2024 | 17 | 7 | 41.2% | 3 |
| 2023 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 7 |
| 2022 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 6 |
| 2018 | 19 | 2 | 10.5% | 7 |
| 2017 | 40 | 13 | 32.5% | 6 |
| 2016 | 36 | 6 | 16.7% | 11 |
| 2015 | 37 | 8 | 21.6% | 12 |
| 2014 | 39 | 13 | 33.3% | 6 |
| 2013 | 38 | 6 | 15.8% | 17 |
| 2012 | 38 | 13 | 34.2% | 9 |
| 2011 | 40 | 11 | 27.5% | 12 |
| 2010 | 36 | 8 | 22.2% | 8 |
| 2009 | 40 | 14 | 35.0% | 6 |
| 2008 | 21 | 4 | 19.1% | 15 |
| 2005 | 17 | 2 | 11.8% | 8 |
| 2004 | 17 | 7 | 41.2% | 4 |
| 1991 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
Over 217 matches (Jan 2015 – Nov 2026), Rot-Weiß Erfurt drew 54 where the draw model expected 58.7 from those particular fixtures — about 5 fewer, or 0.7 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 57.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.