What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 4 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 26 Oct 2024 → 25 Jan 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 9 | 04 May 2025 → 29 Aug 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 9 | 20 Oct 2023 → 13 Jan 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 8 | 09 Nov 2013 → 01 Feb 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 8 | 04 Sep 2013 → 26 Oct 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 7 | 24 Sep 2026 → 30 Oct 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 7 | 20 Sep 2025 → 28 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 05 Aug 2023 → 23 Sep 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 07 Apr 2012 → 19 May 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 07 Dec 2011 → 13 Mar 2012 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2. Bundesliga | 102 | 25 | 24.5% | 3 | 10 |
| Regionalliga West | 70 | 22 | 31.4% | 7 | 7 |
| 3. Liga | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 1 | 8 |
| Regionalliga Südwest | 36 | 13 | 36.1% | 5 | 5 |
| DFB-Pokal | 17 | 2 | 11.8% | 2 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 3 | 3 |
| Bundesliga | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 | 4 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36 | 7 | 19.4% | 7 |
| 2025 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 9 |
| 2024 | 37 | 8 | 21.6% | 9 |
| 2023 | 18 | 3 | 16.7% | 8 |
| 2022 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2021 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2020 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2018 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2017 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 5 |
| 2016 | 23 | 9 | 39.1% | 5 |
| 2015 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2014 | 17 | 6 | 35.3% | 5 |
| 2013 | 21 | 4 | 19.1% | 8 |
| 2012 | 18 | 3 | 16.7% | 7 |
| 2011 | 18 | 6 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2010 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2009 | 18 | 6 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2008 | 17 | 7 | 41.2% | 5 |
Over 172 matches (Aug 2015 – Oct 2026), SV Elversberg drew 42 where the draw model expected 44.2 from those particular fixtures — about 2 fewer, or 0.4 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 46.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.