What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 07 Apr 2024 → 11 Aug 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 16 | 20 Sep 2025 → 06 Apr 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 22 Jul 2023 → 30 Oct 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 13 | 20 Oct 2013 → 04 Apr 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 13 | 31 Mar 2012 → 30 Jun 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 12 | 04 Oct 2014 → 05 Apr 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 07 Apr 2025 → 31 May 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 11 | 29 Aug 2021 → 31 Oct 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 11 | 05 Mar 2016 → 18 May 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 25 Sep 2024 → 02 Nov 2024 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allsvenskan | 446 | 119 | 26.7% | 0 | 17 |
| Swedish Cup | 144 | 24 | 16.7% | 3 | 7 |
| UEFA Europa League | 76 | 16 | 21.1% | 4 | 6 |
| Club Friendlies | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 1 | 5 |
| UEFA Champions League | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 9 |
| 2025 | 37 | 6 | 16.2% | 11 |
| 2024 | 40 | 8 | 20.0% | 17 |
| 2023 | 31 | 4 | 12.9% | 14 |
| 2022 | 36 | 10 | 27.8% | 7 |
| 2021 | 34 | 4 | 11.8% | 11 |
| 2020 | 36 | 16 | 44.4% | 4 |
| 2019 | 35 | 12 | 34.3% | 6 |
| 2018 | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 7 |
| 2017 | 35 | 11 | 31.4% | 7 |
| 2016 | 34 | 10 | 29.4% | 11 |
| 2015 | 42 | 9 | 21.4% | 8 |
| 2014 | 43 | 7 | 16.3% | 8 |
| 2013 | 42 | 12 | 28.6% | 7 |
| 2012 | 37 | 6 | 16.2% | 13 |
| 2011 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2010 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 2009 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 2008 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2007 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 2006 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2005 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 2004 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 2003 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 2002 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 2001 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 4 |
| 2000 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1999 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1997 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1996 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1993 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1983 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1981 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1980 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1978 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1975 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1974 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1971 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1969 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1967 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1951 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1950 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1947 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1946 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1945 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1944 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1943 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1942 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1941 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 430 matches (Feb 2015 – Oct 2026), IF Elfsborg drew 110 where the draw model expected 100.4 from those particular fixtures — about 10 more, or 1.1 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 103.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.