What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20 | 07 May 2007 → 02 Dec 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 18 | 14 Jan 2022 → 07 May 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 15 | 08 May 2021 → 16 Oct 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 15 | 01 Mar 2011 → 30 Jul 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 13 | 13 Aug 2010 → 06 Nov 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 13 | 15 Feb 2004 → 09 May 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 12 | 21 Sep 2019 → 08 Dec 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 12 | 01 Dec 2000 → 18 Mar 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 11 | 10 Jan 2021 → 13 Mar 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 11 | 23 May 2004 → 27 Oct 2004 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2. Bundesliga | 510 | 143 | 28.0% | 3 | 13 |
| 3. Liga | 316 | 85 | 26.9% | 0 | 18 |
| Bundesliga | 272 | 73 | 26.8% | 4 | 15 |
| DFB-Pokal | 33 | 3 | 9.1% | 1 | 8 |
| UEFA Europa League | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 1 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Niederrheinpokal | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34 | 7 | 20.6% | 10 |
| 2025 | 20 | 7 | 35.0% | 7 |
| 2024 | 18 | 3 | 16.7% | 9 |
| 2023 | 20 | 7 | 35.0% | 4 |
| 2022 | 19 | 1 | 5.3% | 18 |
| 2021 | 41 | 6 | 14.6% | 15 |
| 2020 | 36 | 14 | 38.9% | 6 |
| 2019 | 39 | 9 | 23.1% | 12 |
| 2018 | 37 | 9 | 24.3% | 6 |
| 2017 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 5 |
| 2016 | 35 | 14 | 40.0% | 5 |
| 2015 | 36 | 8 | 22.2% | 10 |
| 2014 | 41 | 16 | 39.0% | 5 |
| 2013 | 37 | 14 | 37.8% | 7 |
| 2012 | 36 | 7 | 19.4% | 6 |
| 2011 | 41 | 9 | 22.0% | 15 |
| 2010 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 13 |
| 2009 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 10 |
| 2008 | 36 | 12 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2007 | 36 | 5 | 13.9% | 20 |
| 2006 | 37 | 14 | 37.8% | 4 |
| 2005 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 8 |
| 2004 | 34 | 5 | 14.7% | 13 |
| 2003 | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 6 |
| 2002 | 33 | 9 | 27.3% | 6 |
| 2001 | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 8 |
| 2000 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 6 |
| 1999 | 33 | 10 | 30.3% | 7 |
| 1998 | 34 | 15 | 44.1% | 6 |
| 1997 | 37 | 9 | 24.3% | 8 |
| 1996 | 32 | 7 | 21.9% | 8 |
| 1995 | 36 | 13 | 36.1% | 6 |
| 1994 | 31 | 4 | 12.9% | 10 |
| 1993 | 20 | 7 | 35.0% | 8 |
| 1978 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 |
| 1975 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
Over 373 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), MSV Duisburg drew 96 where the draw model expected 100.3 from those particular fixtures — about 4 fewer, or 0.5 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 101.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.