What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20 | 13 Dec 2014 → 25 Jul 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 16 | 15 Mar 2026 → 05 Sep 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 16 | 15 Oct 2023 → 18 Feb 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 16 | 04 Mar 2005 → 09 Sep 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 15 | 05 Nov 2017 → 18 Mar 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 02 Oct 2020 → 29 Nov 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 13 Apr 2019 → 18 Aug 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 11 | 26 Aug 2015 → 31 Oct 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 10 | 25 Oct 2025 → 24 Jan 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 10 | 06 Aug 2021 → 23 Oct 2021 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2. Bundesliga | 384 | 105 | 27.3% | 3 | 16 |
| 3. Liga | 304 | 71 | 23.4% | 2 | 19 |
| Bundesliga | 68 | 22 | 32.4% | 0 | 7 |
| UEFA Europa League | 48 | 16 | 33.3% | 0 | 6 |
| UEFA Champions League | 29 | 6 | 20.7% | 1 | 4 |
| DFB-Pokal | 26 | 7 | 26.9% | 1 | 3 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 14 | 1 | 7.1% | 6 | 6 |
| Club Friendlies | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 4 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 | 3 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32 | 6 | 18.8% | 16 |
| 2025 | 38 | 9 | 23.7% | 8 |
| 2024 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 9 |
| 2023 | 20 | 1 | 5.0% | 10 |
| 2022 | 18 | 10 | 55.6% | 3 |
| 2021 | 41 | 6 | 14.6% | 10 |
| 2020 | 35 | 6 | 17.1% | 11 |
| 2019 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 11 |
| 2018 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 9 |
| 2017 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 6 |
| 2016 | 37 | 15 | 40.5% | 4 |
| 2015 | 38 | 7 | 18.4% | 18 |
| 2014 | 39 | 16 | 41.0% | 7 |
| 2013 | 34 | 12 | 35.3% | 5 |
| 2012 | 36 | 13 | 36.1% | 3 |
| 2011 | 39 | 8 | 20.5% | 8 |
| 2010 | 37 | 8 | 21.6% | 8 |
| 2009 | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 10 |
| 2008 | 19 | 6 | 31.6% | 5 |
| 2007 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2006 | 19 | 4 | 21.1% | 5 |
| 2005 | 33 | 5 | 15.2% | 16 |
| 2004 | 17 | 3 | 17.7% | 8 |
| 1995 | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 5 |
| 1994 | 31 | 10 | 32.3% | 7 |
| 1993 | 20 | 8 | 40.0% | 5 |
| 1991 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1990 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1989 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1988 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 1987 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1986 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1985 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1984 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1982 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1981 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1980 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1979 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1978 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1977 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1976 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1975 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 1974 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 3 |
| 1973 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1972 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 1971 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1970 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1967 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
Over 408 matches (Feb 2015 – Nov 2026), Dynamo Dresden drew 99 where the draw model expected 111.1 from those particular fixtures — about 12 fewer, or 1.3 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 110.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.