What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 4 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 07 Jun 2012 → 11 Aug 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 13 | 30 Sep 2018 → 25 Nov 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 19 Jun 2024 → 05 Aug 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 12 | 17 Oct 2012 → 26 May 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 29 Sep 2013 → 13 Nov 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 14 Aug 2013 → 18 Sep 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 29 Aug 2026 → 29 Oct 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 27 Nov 2016 → 14 May 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 10 | 31 May 2015 → 12 Jul 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 10 | 03 May 2014 → 26 Jul 2014 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 451 | 122 | 27.1% | 15 | 15 |
| Copa do Brasil | 89 | 21 | 23.6% | 1 | 9 |
| Intercontinental Cup (Toyota Cup) | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39 | 9 | 23.1% | 10 |
| 2025 | 46 | 14 | 30.4% | 7 |
| 2024 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 12 |
| 2023 | 42 | 15 | 35.7% | 8 |
| 2022 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 2021 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2020 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 1 |
| 2019 | 44 | 17 | 38.6% | 5 |
| 2018 | 46 | 13 | 28.3% | 13 |
| 2017 | 52 | 17 | 32.7% | 8 |
| 2016 | 49 | 11 | 22.5% | 8 |
| 2015 | 40 | 10 | 25.0% | 10 |
| 2014 | 46 | 9 | 19.6% | 10 |
| 2013 | 45 | 7 | 15.6% | 11 |
| 2012 | 38 | 7 | 18.4% | 14 |
| 1997 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1976 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
Over 411 matches (May 2015 – Oct 2026), Cruzeiro drew 120 where the draw model expected 118.3 from those particular fixtures — about 2 more, or 0.2 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 110.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.