What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | 21 Apr 2006 → 04 Nov 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 16 | 29 Mar 2024 → 14 Sep 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 10 Sep 2005 → 26 Nov 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 14 | 07 Aug 1999 → 19 Oct 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 13 | 09 Feb 2021 → 02 Apr 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 13 | 28 Jan 2005 → 02 Apr 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 13 | 02 Sep 2000 → 28 Oct 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 12 | 12 Mar 2016 → 31 Jul 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 12 | 01 Oct 2011 → 10 Dec 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 12 | 20 Nov 2007 → 29 Jan 2008 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| League Two | 878 | 250 | 28.5% | 7 | 13 |
| League One | 322 | 88 | 27.3% | 9 | 22 |
| FA Cup | 104 | 23 | 22.1% | 3 | 5 |
| National League | 46 | 11 | 23.9% | 9 | 9 |
| League Cup | 41 | 6 | 14.6% | 1 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 3 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40 | 10 | 25.0% | 10 |
| 2025 | 51 | 9 | 17.7% | 11 |
| 2024 | 49 | 9 | 18.4% | 16 |
| 2023 | 49 | 13 | 26.5% | 7 |
| 2022 | 47 | 14 | 29.8% | 8 |
| 2021 | 56 | 15 | 26.8% | 13 |
| 2020 | 38 | 9 | 23.7% | 9 |
| 2019 | 50 | 15 | 30.0% | 11 |
| 2018 | 50 | 15 | 30.0% | 10 |
| 2017 | 51 | 12 | 23.5% | 11 |
| 2016 | 50 | 13 | 26.0% | 12 |
| 2015 | 52 | 15 | 28.8% | 8 |
| 2014 | 48 | 14 | 29.2% | 8 |
| 2013 | 50 | 18 | 36.0% | 6 |
| 2012 | 52 | 13 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 2011 | 52 | 11 | 21.2% | 12 |
| 2010 | 46 | 16 | 34.8% | 8 |
| 2009 | 50 | 16 | 32.0% | 7 |
| 2008 | 52 | 13 | 25.0% | 8 |
| 2007 | 46 | 15 | 32.6% | 7 |
| 2006 | 53 | 12 | 22.6% | 22 |
| 2005 | 52 | 11 | 21.2% | 14 |
| 2004 | 50 | 18 | 36.0% | 8 |
| 2003 | 49 | 15 | 30.6% | 8 |
| 2002 | 53 | 14 | 26.4% | 8 |
| 2001 | 50 | 17 | 34.0% | 8 |
| 2000 | 50 | 12 | 24.0% | 13 |
| 1999 | 27 | 6 | 22.2% | 14 |
| 1998 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1997 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1996 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1992 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1990 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1987 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1974 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1970 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1969 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1968 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1962 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1959 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1956 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1950 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1947 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1946 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1945 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1938 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1937 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1935 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1934 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1933 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
Over 583 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Cheltenham Town drew 149 where the draw model expected 160.2 from those particular fixtures — about 11 fewer, or 1.0 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 156.0 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.