What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 29 Apr 2023 → 18 Sep 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 10 | 24 Aug 1997 → 23 Nov 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 9 | 22 Apr 2018 → 21 Sep 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 06 Nov 1998 → 16 Jan 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 02 Feb 1997 → 13 Apr 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 9 | 20 Jan 1996 → 24 Mar 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 05 Oct 2018 → 23 Dec 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 04 Feb 2018 → 31 Mar 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 13 Dec 1997 → 08 Feb 1998 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 28 Oct 2023 → 29 Dec 2023 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 340 | 87 | 25.6% | 4 | 10 |
| Taça de Portugal | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 | 2 |
| UEFA Europa League | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2025 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2024 | 21 | 7 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2023 | 36 | 8 | 22.2% | 10 |
| 2022 | 15 | 5 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2019 | 20 | 7 | 35.0% | 5 |
| 2018 | 33 | 5 | 15.2% | 9 |
| 2017 | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 4 |
| 2016 | 15 | 7 | 46.7% | 4 |
| 1999 | 18 | 7 | 38.9% | 5 |
| 1998 | 36 | 6 | 16.7% | 7 |
| 1997 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 10 |
| 1996 | 32 | 7 | 21.9% | 9 |
| 1995 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 6 |
| 1994 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 6 |
| 1987 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
Over 179 matches (Aug 2016 – Oct 2026), GD Chaves drew 51 where the draw model expected 45.1 from those particular fixtures — about 6 more, or 1.0 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 45.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.