What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 421 matches (Mar 2015 – Sep 2026), CF Montréal drew 86 where the draw model expected 105.5 from those particular fixtures — about 20 fewer, or 2.2 standard errors, more of a gap than most, though roughly one subject in twenty looks like this by chance.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 5 times running. A flat league average would have expected 105.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24 | 25 Jun 2017 → 21 Feb 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 21 | 14 Sep 2022 → 28 May 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 21 | 04 Mar 2018 → 15 Jul 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 19 | 20 May 2012 → 16 Sep 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 18 | 20 Sep 2015 → 23 Apr 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 13 | 30 Apr 2022 → 24 Jul 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 13 | 10 Jul 2020 → 28 Sep 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 12 | 18 Oct 2025 → 09 May 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 12 | 25 May 2019 → 11 Aug 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 12 | 30 Jun 2014 → 07 Sep 2014 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLS | 508 | 105 | 20.7% | 8 | 41 |
| Club Friendlies | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 1 | 4 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29 | 6 | 20.7% | 11 |
| 2025 | 34 | 10 | 29.4% | 6 |
| 2024 | 35 | 11 | 31.4% | 6 |
| 2023 | 35 | 5 | 14.3% | 15 |
| 2022 | 36 | 5 | 13.9% | 13 |
| 2021 | 34 | 10 | 29.4% | 7 |
| 2020 | 25 | 2 | 8.0% | 13 |
| 2019 | 39 | 7 | 18.0% | 12 |
| 2018 | 39 | 5 | 12.8% | 21 |
| 2017 | 38 | 7 | 18.4% | 20 |
| 2016 | 40 | 12 | 30.0% | 7 |
| 2015 | 37 | 6 | 16.2% | 11 |
| 2014 | 34 | 10 | 29.4% | 12 |
| 2013 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 2012 | 34 | 6 | 17.7% | 19 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 17:00 |
Toronto FC
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
| Wed, 14 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 14 Oct 23:30 |
CF Montréal
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.4% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 02:30 |
Seattle Sounders
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 20.5% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 17:30 |
CF Montréal
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 20.8% |
|
| Wed, 28 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 28 Oct 23:30 |
Charlotte
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 19.5% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 18:00 |
New York City
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.6% |
|
| Sat, 07 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 07 Nov 21:00 |
CF Montréal
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 22.8% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.