What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 01 Apr 2023 → 28 Jul 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 19 | 15 Aug 2021 → 12 Dec 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 16 | 15 Aug 2020 → 24 Oct 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 14 | 28 Sep 2013 → 23 Mar 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 13 | 26 Aug 2017 → 02 Dec 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 12 | 06 Oct 2018 → 30 Mar 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 03 Aug 2019 → 18 Oct 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 30 Aug 2014 → 22 Oct 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 13 Jul 2022 → 14 Sep 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 09 Nov 2019 → 18 Jul 2020 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J1 League | 431 | 110 | 25.5% | 0 | 17 |
| Emperor's Cup | 72 | 19 | 26.4% | 3 | 5 |
| Club Friendlies | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 6 |
| 2025 | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 8 |
| 2024 | 41 | 14 | 34.2% | 5 |
| 2023 | 38 | 5 | 13.2% | 19 |
| 2022 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 9 |
| 2021 | 43 | 9 | 20.9% | 19 |
| 2020 | 34 | 6 | 17.7% | 16 |
| 2019 | 37 | 6 | 16.2% | 11 |
| 2018 | 38 | 13 | 34.2% | 7 |
| 2017 | 39 | 8 | 20.5% | 13 |
| 2016 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 2015 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2014 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 10 |
| 2013 | 37 | 11 | 29.7% | 10 |
| 2012 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 9 |
| 2011 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 2010 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2009 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2008 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2007 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2006 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2005 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2004 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2003 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 2002 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1995 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1994 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1972 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1971 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1969 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
Over 365 matches (Aug 2015 – Oct 2026), Cerezo Osaka drew 88 where the draw model expected 95.0 from those particular fixtures — about 7 fewer, or 0.8 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 89.0 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.