What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20 | 15 Mar 2023 → 15 Jul 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 20 | 24 Jul 2016 → 19 Oct 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 18 | 21 Sep 2019 → 04 Dec 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 15 | 29 May 2022 → 30 Jul 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 14 | 08 Nov 2020 → 24 Jan 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 10 Aug 2014 → 17 Sep 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 07 Dec 2025 → 04 Apr 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 11 Apr 2019 → 12 Jun 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 20 Aug 2017 → 14 Oct 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 29 May 2013 → 24 Jul 2013 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 489 | 123 | 25.2% | 3 | 18 |
| Copa do Brasil | 71 | 20 | 28.2% | 2 | 5 |
| FIFA Club World Cup | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 0 | 3 |
| Supercopa do Brasil | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| FIFA Intercontinental Cup | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35 | 9 | 25.7% | 9 |
| 2025 | 49 | 15 | 30.6% | 6 |
| 2024 | 43 | 11 | 25.6% | 6 |
| 2023 | 44 | 11 | 25.0% | 20 |
| 2022 | 43 | 9 | 20.9% | 15 |
| 2021 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 6 |
| 2020 | 35 | 15 | 42.9% | 9 |
| 2019 | 42 | 5 | 11.9% | 18 |
| 2018 | 39 | 12 | 30.8% | 6 |
| 2017 | 44 | 13 | 29.5% | 9 |
| 2016 | 46 | 10 | 21.7% | 20 |
| 2015 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2014 | 42 | 7 | 16.7% | 11 |
| 2013 | 48 | 14 | 29.2% | 9 |
| 2012 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 8 |
Over 439 matches (Apr 2015 – Oct 2026), Botafogo (RJ) drew 114 where the draw model expected 123.8 from those particular fixtures — about 10 fewer, or 1.0 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 117.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.