What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33 | 05 Mar 2011 → 26 Dec 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 18 | 02 Feb 2019 → 03 Aug 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 17 | 27 Sep 2016 → 31 Dec 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 15 | 26 Oct 2008 → 17 Jan 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 15 | 27 Dec 1995 → 23 Mar 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 14 | 11 Nov 2000 → 28 Jan 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 12 | 16 Sep 2014 → 07 Nov 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 12 | 23 Feb 2013 → 20 Apr 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 11 | 04 Mar 2025 → 21 Apr 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 11 | 19 Aug 2017 → 14 Oct 2017 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Championship | 566 | 167 | 29.5% | 3 | 17 |
| Premier League | 494 | 128 | 25.9% | 0 | 28 |
| FA Cup | 409 | 100 | 24.5% | 2 | 5 |
| League One | 310 | 82 | 26.5% | 1 | 15 |
| League Cup | 201 | 45 | 22.4% | 1 | 8 |
| League Two | 46 | 10 | 21.7% | 8 | 8 |
| UEFA Europa League | 18 | 10 | 55.6% | 1 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 16 | 5 | 31.3% | 1 | 3 |
| FA Community Shield | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43 | 15 | 34.9% | 8 |
| 2025 | 51 | 12 | 23.5% | 11 |
| 2024 | 50 | 15 | 30.0% | 8 |
| 2023 | 50 | 8 | 16.0% | 10 |
| 2022 | 50 | 12 | 24.0% | 10 |
| 2021 | 52 | 14 | 26.9% | 8 |
| 2020 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 9 |
| 2019 | 45 | 8 | 17.8% | 18 |
| 2018 | 48 | 13 | 27.1% | 5 |
| 2017 | 52 | 15 | 28.8% | 11 |
| 2016 | 56 | 10 | 17.9% | 17 |
| 2015 | 57 | 21 | 36.8% | 7 |
| 2014 | 52 | 14 | 26.9% | 12 |
| 2013 | 49 | 16 | 32.7% | 12 |
| 2012 | 50 | 14 | 28.0% | 11 |
| 2011 | 46 | 4 | 8.7% | 33 |
| 2010 | 46 | 12 | 26.1% | 11 |
| 2009 | 40 | 13 | 32.5% | 6 |
| 2008 | 40 | 7 | 17.5% | 12 |
| 2007 | 52 | 19 | 36.5% | 7 |
| 2006 | 47 | 12 | 25.5% | 9 |
| 2005 | 51 | 13 | 25.5% | 8 |
| 2004 | 46 | 11 | 23.9% | 10 |
| 2003 | 42 | 16 | 38.1% | 6 |
| 2002 | 41 | 13 | 31.7% | 9 |
| 2001 | 48 | 19 | 39.6% | 5 |
| 2000 | 56 | 12 | 21.4% | 9 |
| 1999 | 54 | 15 | 27.8% | 6 |
| 1998 | 49 | 15 | 30.6% | 6 |
| 1997 | 49 | 15 | 30.6% | 7 |
| 1996 | 49 | 12 | 24.5% | 13 |
| 1995 | 53 | 14 | 26.4% | 7 |
| 1994 | 58 | 14 | 24.1% | 10 |
| 1993 | 33 | 11 | 33.3% | 8 |
| 1992 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 1991 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1990 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1989 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 3 |
| 1988 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1987 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1986 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1985 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1984 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1983 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1982 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1981 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1980 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1979 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1978 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1977 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1976 | 13 | 6 | 46.2% | 2 |
| 1975 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1974 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1973 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 2 |
| 1972 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 2 |
| 1971 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 |
| 1970 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 |
| 1969 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1968 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1967 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1966 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 |
| 1965 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1964 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1963 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1962 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1961 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1960 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1959 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1958 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 1957 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1956 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1955 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1954 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1953 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1952 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1951 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1950 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1949 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1948 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1947 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1946 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 1939 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1938 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1937 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1936 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1935 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 1934 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1933 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1932 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1931 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1930 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1929 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1928 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1927 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1926 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1925 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1924 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1923 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1922 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1921 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1920 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1915 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 1914 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1913 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1912 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1911 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1910 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1909 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1908 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1907 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1906 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1905 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1904 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1903 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1902 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1901 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1900 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1899 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1898 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1897 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1896 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1895 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1894 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1893 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1892 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1891 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1890 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1887 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1886 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1885 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1884 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1883 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1882 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1881 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
Over 590 matches (Jan 2015 – Nov 2026), Bolton Wanderers drew 152 where the draw model expected 159.0 from those particular fixtures — about 7 fewer, or 0.7 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 156.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.