What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23 | 19 Apr 1997 → 22 Nov 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 16 | 09 Sep 2022 → 26 Feb 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 26 Sep 2020 → 10 Jan 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 13 | 23 Aug 2013 → 02 Dec 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 13 | 24 Jan 2010 → 19 Apr 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 12 | 14 Oct 2016 → 03 Feb 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 12 | 31 Oct 2007 → 23 Feb 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 11 | 18 Jan 2025 → 15 Mar 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 11 | 22 Nov 2014 → 04 Mar 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 11 | 25 Sep 2004 → 28 Nov 2004 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2. Bundesliga | 520 | 149 | 28.7% | 4 | 15 |
| Bundesliga | 374 | 106 | 28.3% | 0 | 23 |
| 3. Liga | 190 | 54 | 28.4% | 2 | 10 |
| DFB-Pokal | 46 | 13 | 28.3% | 0 | 7 |
| Club Friendlies | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30 | 9 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 2025 | 42 | 7 | 16.7% | 11 |
| 2024 | 40 | 13 | 32.5% | 6 |
| 2023 | 39 | 14 | 35.9% | 5 |
| 2022 | 37 | 8 | 21.6% | 11 |
| 2021 | 40 | 15 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 2020 | 31 | 9 | 29.0% | 12 |
| 2019 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 4 |
| 2018 | 36 | 14 | 38.9% | 7 |
| 2017 | 38 | 14 | 36.8% | 4 |
| 2016 | 34 | 12 | 35.3% | 10 |
| 2015 | 39 | 17 | 43.6% | 6 |
| 2014 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 6 |
| 2013 | 38 | 7 | 18.4% | 13 |
| 2012 | 40 | 13 | 32.5% | 9 |
| 2011 | 39 | 15 | 38.5% | 4 |
| 2010 | 36 | 4 | 11.1% | 13 |
| 2009 | 36 | 12 | 33.3% | 7 |
| 2008 | 37 | 15 | 40.5% | 5 |
| 2007 | 36 | 5 | 13.9% | 9 |
| 2006 | 35 | 9 | 25.7% | 7 |
| 2005 | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 6 |
| 2004 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 11 |
| 2003 | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 10 |
| 2002 | 33 | 8 | 24.2% | 8 |
| 2001 | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 9 |
| 2000 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 7 |
| 1999 | 32 | 9 | 28.1% | 6 |
| 1998 | 33 | 10 | 30.3% | 10 |
| 1997 | 37 | 4 | 10.8% | 23 |
| 1996 | 32 | 10 | 31.3% | 7 |
| 1995 | 19 | 3 | 15.8% | 10 |
Over 442 matches (Feb 2015 – Oct 2026), Arminia Bielefeld drew 143 where the draw model expected 117.0 from those particular fixtures — about 26 more, or 2.8 standard errors, more of a gap than most, though roughly one subject in twenty looks like this by chance.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 7 times running. A flat league average would have expected 117.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.